Cheltenham - Final Ante-Post

    I've finished my ante-post list for the Festival and the staking is down a tad this season, mainly due to Victor Chandler stopping their non-runner free bet concession. I've added another couple of each way doubles today after some chilled out Sunday morning form study.

    Clarcam's own arse was handed to him on a plate by Un De Sceaux last time out but he travelled and jumped well until Ruby pressed the gas pedal as they entered the straight and I think he's overpriced in the without favourite market. Vibrato Valtat is the obvious danger but he's had a lot of racing this season and I have a hunch he's due a poor run. Whatever, if UDS wins Clarcam has to finish outside the first four for for my bet to be a loser and I struggle to see that happening.

    A lot of my focus this morning was on the Albert Bartlett where I feel Black Hercules is a sort of default position favourite and No More Heroes is short enough in the market also. With that in mind there is value amongst the double figure brigade and whilst Martello Tower did tempt me I've come down on the side of Blaklion. I was impressed with the way he battled back in the Challow over too short a distance against classy opposition and Ladbrokes seem too long on him at 14/1. Value at Risk is my main fancy for the race but Twister's tough hurdler is an admirable back up. The AB is a good race for a proper scraper and both my horses have that quality in abundance.




--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £12.50ew @ 12/1 NRNB mbs

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £30ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £75w @ 87/10

Queen Mother:
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £25w @ 132/10 and £10w @ 11/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £5ew @ 12/1 NRNB
Blacklion £10w @ 14/1 NRNB

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1


Win Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1



£5ew Doubles:
Clarcam(Arkle w/out UDS)/Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase) @ 9/2 & 14/1 NRNB

Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 9/2 & 20/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Value at Risk(AB) @ 6/1 & 11/1 NRNB

Monksland(World Hurdle)/Blacklion(AB) @ 16/1 & 14/1 NRNB

£128 lost on Non-Runners

Cheltenham - 3 days out

    I wasn't gonna get involved in the Supreme this season as I have no strong views on the race, but a couple of bookies are offering punters their money back if your horse loses so it makes little sense to not bet on the race with a concession like that. I do like Shaneshill, he acts on the track and will be much more at home in a decently run race on good ground than he was at Navan in December when No More Heroes bested him on deep ground. I backed him shortly after that contest for the Neptune which looks like money down the drain now and the fact that he hasn't run at all during 2015 is a big negative. He's the only one I could pick out in the opener at the odds however.

    I had a Twitter rant earlier on this evening when I returned home from work and discovered that Colour Squadron had been pulled from the Plate by his trainer but left in the JLT, a terrible decision.
He'll be outclassed in the race he now runs in but had a decent chance in the handicap - a headscratcher for me. I've been mulling the JLT over a lot during the last few days and have gone from fancying Valseur Lido for the race based on his slick jumping to coming round to Apache Stronghold, a horse I've backed a number of times this season. His win in the Flogas, whilst high class, also came with some question marks attached with regards to his Festival chances. He was awkward at a number of fences and didn't travel that well - not traits you want when it comes to a hot Cheltenham race. But I feel that his jumping did improve towards the end of that race when the pace hotted up and there is a chance that the better gallop they'll go next Thursday will be a help rather than a hindrance. I certainly think he'll be available at bigger odds than 11/2 nearer the off so will hold off for now but it's fairly certain I'll be involved at some stage.

    Three days to go, excited.




--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £12.50ew @ 12/1 NRNB mbs

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £30ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £75w @ 87/10

Queen Mother:
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £25w @ 132/10 and £10w @ 11/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £5ew @ 12/1 NRNB

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1


Win Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1



£5ew Doubles:
Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Value at Risk(AB) @ 6/1 & 11/1 NRNB





£128 lost on Non-Runners

Cheltenham - 6 days out

    Today's news that Cue Card misses the Festival was a hammer blow and brings my non-runner count over the ton marker now. In hindsight I didn't really need to top up on him for the Ryanair having already procured 16/1 about him actually winning at the meeting. Both this loss and the More of That one will have to go down in the lesson learned camp for future Festivals. Single figure prices no matter how juicy looking have to have that possibility that a horse might not make it to the races factored into them.

    The only addition to my portfolio since my last entry is Colour Squadron in the Festival Plate on Thursday. This horse has a somewhat justified reputation as a bit of a dog and is a maiden over fences but much his best form has come in big field handicaps on this course and he is only 2lbs higher in the ratings than he was when second to the high class Ballynagour in the same race last year. He will definitely outrun odds of 20/1.

    I'm relatively happy with my team, King's Palace is my main hope but I'm also very sweet on Jezki and Value at Risk. Just counting the hours now.



--

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £25ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £75w @ 87/10

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1

Festival Plate:
Colour Squadron £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1 and £5ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Value At Risk £15w @ 14/1 and £10w @ 11/1 NRNB

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1


Win Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1



£5ew Doubles:
Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Rock on Ruby(World Hurdle) @ 11/2 & 8/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Value at Risk(AB) @ 6/1 & 11/1 NRNB

Colour Squadron(Festival Plate)/Value at Risk(AB) @ 20/1 & 10/1 NRNB




£123 lost on Non-Runners

Ante-Post

    Two weeks to go and aside from impressive wins from Sire De Grugy and Beltor on Saturday there were few Cheltenham clues this past weekend. I think the former is the one to beat in the Queen Mother now but his opposition this time around is better than twelve months ago and It'll be interesting to see if he starts fav on the day.

    The handicap weights are out on the 26th and I've had my first bet on one. Mendip Express is a big strong chaser who's three runs this season have included two over hurdles but his lone effort over the bigger obstacles, in the Becher Chase at Aintree in December, was an eye catching one in that he never looked at home on the track, conceding notable ground travelling at the back of the field and jumping awkwardly at times, before finding his groove towards the end of the contest when he stayed on to take second. Obviously he was passing tired horses that day but I loved his attitude and Cheltenham as a course will be much more to his liking. And the form of the Becher is looking ok, Saint Are in third having run well on both occasions he has raced since. I took some 19 on Sunday and have added him to my short list of each way double candidates. Also on that list now is Rock on Ruby. I've done my money on More of That who was ruled out of the World Hurdle today but in his absence it looks a really open renewal and ultimately Ruby is the best horse in the race if we presume Annie Power goes for the Mares Hurdle. Sure he may not stay but he loves the track, looks as good as ever and I find it hard to believe he won't place at worst. I might even back him in a single on the day if his price is similar and the ground is decent.
 


--

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Festival Handicap Chase:
Mendip Express £5w @ 18/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £25ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £75w @ 87/10

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1
Cue Card £25w @ 77/10

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1
Value At Risk £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1

Win Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1

Don Poli(RSA)/Cue Card(Ryanair) £10w @ 5/1 & 7/1


£5ew Doubles:
Mendip Express(Festival Handicap Chase)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 14/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Monksland(World Hurdle) @ 6/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Rock on Ruby(World Hurdle) @ 11/2 & 8/1 NRNB

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB

Cue Card(Ryanair)/Tea For Two(Albert Bartlett) @ 6/1 & 20/1 NRNB




£78 lost on Non-Runners

Kempton - 21st Feb

    I didn't think I'd be betting again until the Festival but Kempton has had a fair bit of rain in the last couple of days and the ground has come right for Melodic Rendezvous in the Pendil. His two main rivals, God's Own and Irish Saint, are horses I've opposed at least once this season and I think both are overrated and they both give weight away to boot. The selection surprised me last time out at Exeter, the ground looked plenty fast enough for him and Southfield Theatre was a classy opponent but he ran really well despite the odd dodgy jump. Backing him at Hills means I get part of my money back as a free bet if he's second and on ground he loves if he gets round it's hard to see more than one horse beating him.

Pendil Novices' Chase:
Melodic Rendezvous £40w @ 9/4 (lost)

(+328.75)

Ante-Post

    I was pleased with Champagne Fever's run at Gowran Park on Saturday. He jumped well and it's a nice confidence booster ahead of the Festival. It has to be said he's gained a lot of experience this season and his Cheltenham record is top drawer, I'm very confident he'll go close whatever race he runs in.

    I've not added much since my last update, just a couple of each way doubles, both strictly NRNB.
More of That's likely absence from the World Hurdle makes it an incredibly open renewal and I like the look of Monksland at a long looking 16/1. He ran a smasher behind Simonsig in the Neptune a few years ago and has run well on both his starts thus far this season. I've backed him ante-post for the race at least once over the last couple of years and done my money as he's never run at the Festival since but things have gone far smoother this time around.

    I've also coupled Tea For Two in a double with Cue Card. It's hard to see the latter out of the places on a course he loves and the test of the Albert Bartlett will suit the Nick Williams inmate. He ran well enough on Saturday but his best form is in big fields. It's far from guaranteed he runs of course but that's what NRNB is for.


--

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £70w @ 89/10

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1
Cue Card £20w @ 8/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £30w @ 47/10

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1
Value At Risk £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1

Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Monksland(World Hurdle) £5ew @ 6/1 & 16/1 NRNB

Don Poli(RSA)/Cue Card(Ryanair) £10w @ 5/1 & 7/1

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) £5ew @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB

Cue Card(Ryanair)/Tea For Two(Albert Bartlett) £5ew @ 6/1 & 20/1 NRNB




£48 lost on Non-Runners

Ascot - 14th Feb

    The Ascot Chase, despite a small field. looks a tidy little race tomorrow but I'm a bit annoyed as I missed the initial price on Ballycasey. I was at work when final decs were made and my phone is coming on four years old and I just couldn't log onto the final bookie (Boylesports) who was offering 5/1. Ballycasey travelled like the best horse in the race in last season's RSA before running out of gas and this trip of two and half miles looks perfect for him. This year he jumped beautifully during his seasonal debut at Gowran Park but was disappointing in the Dial-a-Bet over the Christmas period. That was a funny race though, a number of horses in it ran below form, and I'm giving him a pass for that reason. It's interesting that Ruby comes over for the ride as well with Champagne Fever in action back home in the Red Mills. I fear Ptit Zig of his opponents but it's possible he's been slightly overrated given that he was much much more suited to the trip last time out than Champagne West and it goes without saying that this first foray into open company is by far his toughest test. I don't really rate Balder Succes and ultimately I think I'm backing the best horse in a six runner race at 4/1+. That'll do me all day long.

Ascot Chase:
Ballycasey £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

(+368.75)

Ante-Post

 

    I can't remember the last time I quite enjoyed a card as much as the one at Leopardstown last Sunday. A couple of really interesting Juvenile/Novice Hurdles, a terrific battle in the Flogas and AP winning the Hennessy. Brilliant stuff. Apache Stronghold's win from Valseur Lido was one of the biggest buzzes of the season for me but I do prefer the Mullins horse for Cheltenham - I think he travels and jumps better but just lacks the engine size of Mead's chaser who I fear could get left behind in the JLT. I've not backed Valseur Lido yet because it's not clear which race he'll go for - I expect I'll add him to my each way double shortlist when his ultimate target is confirmed.

    I think each way doubles are a fine strategy for the Festival but last year I made the mistake of not having that many and so despite having Jezki in one at 14s and Fingal Bay in another at 11s I missed out on a big pay day by not having them together. So this season I want a list of maybe eight horses and I'll try and get each of them in at least four combos. I placed my first one today with the NRNB concession. I think Smad Place is overpriced for the Gold Cup - a good pace on decent ground will really suit him (he was really keen behind Many Clouds last time out) and of course he ran a good race in the RSA last March.

    Elsewhere nothing much else to report. The positives are Champagne Fever looks more solid for the Queen Mother with Sire de Grugy's poor run in the Game Spirit and I was pleased to see King's Palace have his prep on the same day. On the black side though I hoped for more from Boston Bob in the Hennessy given he had his ground more or less and just now news has emerged that More of That is now an unlikely participant in the World Hurdle.


--

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £20w @ 84/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £70w @ 89/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1
Cue Card £20w @ 8/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £30w @ 47/10

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1
Value At Risk £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1

Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1

Don Poli(RSA)/Cue Card(Ryanair) £10w @ 5/1 & 7/1

Champagne Fever(Queen Mother)/Smad Place(Gold Cup) £5ew @ 6/1 & 25/1 NRNB



£48 lost on Non-Runners

Weekend Racing - Newbury and Leopardstown

    We have a couple of cracking cards at Newbury and Leopardstown over the next couple of days and it might be my busiest betting weekend of the season.

    I've already backed Amore Alato in the Betfair Hurdle at a tidy looking 33/1 and he's been bigger all week on the machine so I've topped up there on both the win and place markets. It's a very competitive looking race but he's overpriced, particularly with Lizzie taking seven off.

    My other bet on the card is Taquin Du Seuil in the Denman Chase. There's a nice angle in this race as Houblon Des Obeaux and Unioniste both look underpriced (the former looked good giving stacks of weight away to The Young Master last time out but that form has been overrated considering the proximity of Hey Big Spender in behind) and essentially I see this horse as being most suited to giving weight away to inferior opponents in handicaps. I don't see Unioniste as a graded chaser either and ultimately Taquin has the best overall form in the race and is fourth favourite. He has to put a poor run in the Betfair Chase behind him but Jonjo's horses are in rude form now as opposed to back in November and conditions should suit. Coneygree looks the danger. Half my stake is at Hills who have the money back as a freebie if your horse is second, a handy concession with Cheltenham not far away.

    I'm a big fan of Apache Stronghold and have been tempted by the 16s about him for the JLT for a while but that race at the Festival looks hella competitive and at the moment I'd sooner take my chance on him in the Flogas tomorrow at Leopardstown. He has Valseur Lido to beat of course which is no easy task but the price differential between the two is out of line in my opinion. The Mullins horse won the Drinmore by eight lengths from the selection but Apache must have lost more than that distance by continually jumping to his left (mostly following a horse in the same ownership as the winner) and he shaped much, much better in the Topaz next time out, just not staying on as well as Don Poli. Conditions will suit more tomorrow and at 5/1 he really looks an each way bet to nothing.


Denman Chase:
Taquin Du Seuil £25w @ 9/2 and £25w @ 4/1 (mbs) (lost)

Betfair Hurdle:
Amore Alato £10ew @ 33/1, £20w @ 35/1 and £15pl @ 52/10 (lost)


Flogas Novice Chase:
Apache Stronghold £25ew @ 5/1 (won)

(+408.75)

Ante-Post

    The Betfair Hurdle headlines Saturday's card at Newbury and I've been eyeing up Amore Alato at big prices ever since the market went up. Truth be told he was very disappointing last time out but wasn't allowed to stride out in front and the pace setters couldn't be pegged back. This race is one of the hottest handicap hurdles of the year with a roll of honour featuring some top class animals and so I was just as interested in the place element of the prices I was looking at but Nick is jocking up Lizzie Kelly who rides the horse for the first time so the 7lb claim is huge, it gives the horse an effective mark of 133 which is very juicy.

    Looking to Cheltenham I have topped up on King's Palace and added Champagne Fever for the Queen Mother. Initially I was against the horse running over two miles and looking down the page one can see I've backed him for the Ryanair and Gold Cup also (face/palm insert here) but the Champion Chase looks pretty winnable this season with the front three in the market all worth taking on at their respective odds. I've sort of changed my mind on him a little bit as I held the view at one time that if he couldn't beat Western Warhorse in the Arkle why would he win a Queen Mother, but he is much more experienced now and I keep coming back to Finian's Rainbow when contemplating the race. I backed that horse in his Arkle where he finished pretty legless behind Captain Chris before going onto win the 2m Championship the following year. That twelve months worth of experience and toughing up could be just what Champagne Fever needs and I feel being let loose after a headstrong run at Kempton will be huge for him. It goes without saying that he loves the track and his Festival record (two wins and a second) is a nice tick in the plus column.




Betfair Hurdle:
Amore Alato £10ew @ 33/1

--

Arkle Chase:
Josses Hill £50w @ 11/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £15w @ 13/2 and £20ew @ 11/2 NRNB

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:
Shaneshill £10w @ 14/1

Queen Mother:
Uxizandre £15ew @ 16/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £15w @ 86/10

RSA Chase:
King's Palace £70w @ 89/10

Ryanair Chase:
Uxizandre £12w @ 16/1
Champagne Fever £10w @ 12/1
Cue Card £20w @ 8/1

World Hurdle:
More of That £30w @ 47/10

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle:
Tea For Two £10w @ 25/1
Value At Risk £15w @ 14/1

Gold Cup:
Boston Bob £10ew @ 20/1 NRNB
Champagne Fever £25w @ 17/1
Taquin Du Seuil £15w @ 26/1

To Win at the Festival:
Cue Card £10 @ 16/1

Doubles:
Tea For Two(Lanzarote)(won)/King's Palace(RSA) £10w @ 6/1 & 5/1

Jezki(Champion Hurdle)/Champagne West(RSA) £10ew @ 6/1 & 16/1

£15 lost on Non-Runner(s)