Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

Here we go then, Denman vs Kauto round 3.

I'm a massive Denman fan and I have to stay loyal to him today. He's out to 5/1 on Betfair and that is too big. His Hennessy win was pretty amazing off 174 and I just hope his fall at Newbury hasn't left any scars. I think the big meeting's wake him up however and I remain hopeful. The drying ground is only an issue in that a more severe test is more in his favour than Kauto Star's but he does act on a fast surface. Kauto Star is the best National Hunt horse to have run for forty years but it's always been my opinion that he is vulnerable at Cheltenham when they go a decent clip. In 2008 he made mistakes on the first circuit before Denman put it too him and in 2006 he actually fell in the two mile Champion Chase when favourite. He's certainly not as much of a cert as Big Bucks was yesterday. I've also backed Cooldine at 14s as a fast run race on this decent ground will suit.

Gold Cup

Denman £60win @ 9/2

Cooldine £20win @ 14/1

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3

Strange day yesterday, I was certain I had the RSA covered but got blown out of the water. However, all my each ways were placed and I actually finished in front on the day.

I've already tucked into the World Hurdle and the Ryanair ante-post but all my selections are still at backable prices.

In the Ryanair I like Tranquil Sea. He won the Paddy Power at Cheltenham in November but for some reason the horse he beat that day Poquelin has always been shorter in the betting. I put that down to Paul Nicholls being the trainer. This has been a race that for awhile i've been totally against a number of the runners. Barber's Shop, Voy Por Ustedes and Schinder's Hunt are animals I couldn't really have at any price. One in double figures I do like is Planet of Sound. Third in the Arkle last year he ran a really eye-catching second giving weight to Albertas Run when stepped up in trip in November and I thought then that he'd be a Ryanair horse. Unfortunately he is a horse that makes the odd mistake and indeed he fell when favourite for a race last month. From a talent point of view he's with the best in this and for me his error prown profile is factored in his price.

In the World Hurdle i really cannot oppose Big Bucks. He's the most solid of all Nicholls hot pots this year. But in the market without him I really like Karabak. In his last three starts he has finished second to Big Bucks, Zaynar over a trip that suited the Henderson animal more and the top class Mikael D'Haguenet in the Baring Bingham at last year's festival. It takes a really top notch animal to beat him and for me after Big Bucks there isn't much worthwhile opposition in the race

Day 3 Bets:

Ryanair

Tranquil Sea £30win @ 11/2

Planet of Sound £15ew @ 12/1

World Hurdle

Karabak £30win @ 100/30 (without Big Buck's)

Mikael D'Haguenet

Mikael D'Haguenet

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

Nick Williams is the up and coming trainer in NH racing and I decided to follow his stable last year. He hasn't had a Festival winner as yet but Reve De Silvola and James De Vassy should both go well at big prices for him tomorrow. The former can be a dodgy jumper but he ran really well in a very hot Triumph Hurdle last year and he's a daft price (14s) especially as one of his victims in his last win is trading at half his price. James De Vassy runs in the big Handicap Hurdle and he has good form with Kyhber Kim who was second in the Champion Hurdle.
I'm against Diamond Harry (Nick's best horse) in the RSA however. This is because I am in a fantastic position in this race having taken a chance on Long Run at 6/1 (when there was a debate as to whether or not he'd go for this or the Arkle) and then topping up when he was a confirmed runner. Punchestowns I initially backed at 12s when he was found lame the other morning as he seemed the only danger to my selection and I have backed him since as well.
Looking at the market now my two selections are so much shorter than the prices I have that it might pay to have a little on Diamond Harry as extra cover. Like yesterday i'm gonna include him in a small double.
Wednesday's biggest race is the Queen Mother Champion Chase and i'm solidly with Kalahari King in this. A fast ground horse who ran really well in the Arkle last year I think he is well capable of shaking up the hot favourite and should be guaranteed to reach the frame. And each way selection to nothing imo.

Day 2 Bets:

Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle

Reve De Sivola £15e/w @ 14/1

RSA Chase

Long Run £30win @ 47/10

Punchestowns £30win @ 53/10

Diamond Harry and Master Minded (Champion Chase) £20win Double @ Betfair SP

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Kalahari King £15e/w @ 11/2

Coral Cup

James De Vassy £15e/w @ 20/1

Cheltenham Festival - Day 1

At last we're here. I have a number of bets today most of which were placed awhile ago.

In the Arkle I first backed Sizing Europe for the race in September at 22/1 and I have been topping up on occasion ever since, the last bet being last night. He's the best jumper of fences in the field and still represents value at around 11/2. The favourite Captain Cee Bee is around 3s and that is a terrible price. He may have beaten my selection last time out when he was going

better but tipped up at the last if he'd stayed on his feet - but that is the question with that horse - he hits fences, and for me he either won't get round or will clout a few that will knock the wind out of him. I also think SE wasn't at his best last time out and is a horse that goes well fresh. The main danger is Somersby who did look terrific when he won his Novice Chase at Sandown. He warrants a cover bet so i've decided to stick him in a double with Dunguib, who looks rock solid in the opener

In the big handicap i'm with Casey Jones a classy irish chaser who ran ok in the RSA last year. He should run well.

The Champion Hurdle is a very open contest and the only angle I can and have gone with here is that the form of the 2009 renewal (the first three from that race all line-up today) has proven pretty worthless. So I cannot have Punjabi, Binocular or Celestial Halo. I backed Go Native a few months ago simply because he's won a couple of important trials and triumphed here in the Supreme last year. I think he's rock solid. My other bet is Zaynar. I was premature backing him awhile back at 7s as he is now 10s but I have topped up. Naturally the distance is a worry and i'm not too confident but his current drift is down to him working poorly last week. The same thing happened last year when he drifted for the Triumph but he still won that race. I can certainly see him reaching the frame.

Day 1 Bets:

ARKLE

Sizing Europe £40win @ 79/10

Dunguib (Supreme) and Somersby £20win double @ Betfair SP

WH Trophy

Casey Jones £10win @ 22/1 £15pl @ 5/1

Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly - Non-Runner

Go Native £25win @ 52/10

Zaynar £25win @ 88/10 £10pl @ 5/

Cheltenham - Ante-post

Not posted for awhile, reason being I simply haven't had a bet. After the new year I generally don't get involved until the Festival. It wasn't until the early 00s that I even bothered much with the Jumps but since going online in 2004 and actually visiting Cheltenham in 05 I have become more and more keen until i'd say it's as important to me as the Flat nowadays. Anyway, i've been having the odd bet on this year's races since September and my current list is:

Arkle
£20w Sizing Europe @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle
£20w Hurricane Fly NR
£20w Go Native @ 11/2
£20w Zaynar @ 86/10

Baring Bingham

£15TBP Reve De Sivola @ 11/4

RSA
£25w Long Run @ 48/10
£10w Punchestowns @ 92/10

Coral Cup
£15ew James De Vassy @ 20/1

Ryanair
£15ew Planet of Sound @ 14/1
£25w Tranquil Sea @ 11/2


World Hurdle
£20w Karabak (w/o Big Bucks) @ 32/10
£10w Karabak @ 95/10

Gold Cup
£40w Denman @ 7/2
£5w Aran Concerto NR
£20w Cooldine @ 145/10

King George Bet

Finally sorted my bet out of Barbers Shop but i've decided to leave Albertas Run alone

Barbers Shop £20win @ 24/1 £10pl @ 7/2

I've also had a look at the market without Kauto Star and like Madison Du Berlais at 9/2. He ran below form last time out behind Kauto Star and Imperial Commander but traditionally needs his first run of the year and I think with the latter being better going left handed is the main danger to the favourite. I have also had a sneaky tenner on him in the outright market just in case Kauto is on the downgrade.

Madison Du Berlais £30win @ 9/2 W/O Fav £10win @ 12/1 outright

King George

Kauto Star goes for a fourth King George Chase on Boxing Day but he has a lot of miles on the clock and for me he could be vulnerable this year. That said he can obviously win this running up to a stone below his very best and it's more the Gold Cup I can't see him winning.

An odds-on shot and a second favourite who isn't as good going right handed equals mucho each way value further down the list and i'm gonna have win and place bets on Barbers Shop and Albertas Run. Both will be ideally suited by the distance/track and I see at least one of them making the frame.

I haven't sorted my bets out yet and will post them as soon as they are made.

Hennessy

Fascinating race today at Newbury and I really like Denman and Killyglen. The former everyone knows about and although he's running off 174 today I still thnk he may be well handicapped (Imperial Commander has been put up to the same mark after the Betfair Chase yesterday) and for me he's a backable price because of his much publicised issues last year.
Killyglen is in my ten to follow list this year and I think he ran a smashing race first time up over an inadequate 2 and a half miles, the form of which has worked out quite well.
Obviously it's a really competitive race and there are some nicely weighted horses trading at tempting prices like Gone to Lunch, Nenuphar Collonges and My Will but i'll stick with the two selections. I think Barbers Shop, Cappa Bleu and What a Friend are poor value and make the race from a betting angle.

Denman £25win @ 47/10
Killyglen £20win @ 9/1

Haydock - Betfair Chase Day

I'm going to Haydock today and already have a position on Kauto Star. Worries about the ground and the fact that he tipped up in this race a year ago meant he was trading at 2.28 on Betfair yesterday. I took that for £75 and expect him to be odds-on as the money comes in for what is a very public horse. I intend to lay off £35 at around 1.9 if possible. I think the fact that he comes here fresh as opposed to running at Down Royal like last year is the key thing in making him a bet today. He has a huge amount in hand from a form point of view and should be odds-on. Notre Pere is a horse I like but not over 3 miles on a tight track. I consider Madison Du Berlais to be the main danger and may back him on course.

Diamond Harry is also a horse I will be backing on the track in the handicap hurdle.

Cheltenham - Open Meeting

The first big Jumps fixture of the season and I have found a bet in the big race. I think i'm gonna have a sneaky each way on Tartak - and i'll be taking the 16s with Paddy Power given the concession they are running (they will refund your stake if one of the Paul Nicholls trained runners wins) rather than the 18s available generally. He ran really well in the Arkle considering he was squeezed out at a time when he was travelling nicely. The trip was on the short side as well that day. I think we're getting a nice price because of his poor run at Aintree but i'm always willing to forgive the odd off day.

On sunday I have already backed James De Vassey in the Greatwood. I've always mulled over the idea of following a stable in the winter game to try and get a better handle on form (flat racing always being my main thing) but i've never quite found the right trainer. I didn't want someone either at the top of the tree or someone who was getting on a bit (toyed with the idea of following Ferdy Murphy a few years ago but felt he was too old) and last year I plumped for Nick Williams as a trainer with a lot of potential and someone who seemed to be getting better and better horses each year. I've already backed Diamond Harry for the RSA Chase at the Festival and James De Vassey strikes me as a sporting bet in what is obviously a very competitive handicap hurdle.

Tartak £25w £15pl @ 16/1 in the Paddy Power.
James De Vassey £20win £10pl @ 10/1 in the Greatwood.