Newmarket - 28th Sept

2012 Cambridgeshire Handicap

                                           

Bronze Angel winning the Cambridgeshire last year pretty much made my flat season and really helped cushion the blow that was Orfevre's defeat in the Arc a little over a week later. Twelve months on and both horses are back in their respective races. Nice.

With the Tregoning 4yo it is a negative that he hasn't had a race thus far in 2013 and that has to temper confidence but he won the race last year in the manner of a horse worth putting on the tracker as one to follow, once again being asked to race wider than the main principals just as he had to do in the Britannia when he first appeared on my radar. That Cambridgeshire victory was his first race after his run at the Royal meeting so he has proved that he is best when fresh and given that his trainer has had all of eight winners this flat season I expect him to be ready to run for his life tomorrow. Another plus point is 2013's race really doesn't look as good as 2012's- I was afraid of the likes of Mukhadram and Mull of Killough a year ago but this time around no one horse sticks out as a danger. If my selection is back to his best, and it is an if I do concede that, he will outrun his price big time. Once again in both his big field handicap attempts he has finished impressively on both occasions despite having to cover more ground than his main rivals due to his draw.

EDIT: 28/9
With Bronze Angel being such an important bet I didn't sleep to well last night and was up early looking through the race again. Queensberry Rules of all the runners is the one I worry about. He actually replicated Bronze Angel's finishing position in the Briannia twelve months on earlier in June and although he didn't have to cross most of the width of the track to get involved like the selection did the year before he did have to bob and weave a bit through the field. His runs subsequent (when he seemed to be well backed both times) aren't that relevant as the International at Ascot is over 7f and the handicap at York he was well down the field in last time out was run at a crawl. He's worth a bit of cover.


The Sun Chariot looks a race worth tucking into given the skimpiness of Sky Lantern's price. This filly has been on the go since April when she ran over course and distance in the Nell Gwyn and history shows us that a fresher contender is needed for this contest. Elusive Kate won the Falmouth fair and square and is the best filly in the race on form. I'll take 11/4 all day long in this sort of scenario - and some 5/2 with a nice concession.

Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £90w @ 21/1, £15ew @ 20/1 (5pl) and £20pl @ 11/2 (4pl) (lost)
Queensberry Rules £20ew @ 16/1 (5pl) (lost)

Sun Chariot Stakes:
Elusive Kate £30w @ 11/4 and £25w @ 5/2 (lost)

(+16.3)

Sandown - 18th Sept

It's rare for me to have a bet midweek on a non Festival card but as soon as I saw on Twitter that Sandown had had a lot of rain overnight I became very interested in Penitent in the 3.55. This horse loves the mud, has won twice at the track and his runs behind Gordon Lord Byron in the Foret last season on heavy and Gregorian (giving that horse 5lb) in the Diomed at Epsom in June on good to soft read very well. He should be clear favourite for today's contest but the market is headed by Wentworth. There is a touch of hype about this horse and he has never run on ground softer than good. Readily opposed.

Fortune Stakes:
Penitent £60w @ 202/100 (half my stake BOG) (won)

(+251.3)

Arc Trials Postscript

Orfevre had my spine tingling on Sunday. He won the Prix Foy (against not much opposition I concede) in effortless fashion and he's just a horse with that flash of brilliance about him. I can't see beyond him for the Arc despite Kizuna and Treve also winning their races well. The former is underpriced now and I'd always want to oppose fillies, especially 3yo fillies, at single figure prices for such a massive race. Kizuna will come on stacks for his victory in the Niel and rates the main danger at present. My ante-post on the race is a bit of a mess with non runners aplenty so my hedge on him is reduced to a small double. I held off on topping up on Orfevre until yesterday evening and may go in again nearer the race.

Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £40w @ 21/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Orfevre £50w @ 58/10
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
Non Runners - £55 lost

Kizuna/Cue Card (King George) £10dbl @ 8/1 and 8/1

Champion Stakes:
Intello £19w @ 78/10


----
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £20w @ 172/10
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

RSA:
Clondaw Kaempfer £4w @ 109/1

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

St Leger/Arc Trials/A-Post

I can't say I'm a massive fan of our oldest Classic and I don't fancy anything too strongly in the this year's renewal - I find with the trip being an unknown for a lot of contenders there is a lot of guesswork involved in picking one. The one who does standout to me in terms of price is Secret Number who is trading at 20/1 in a place. He was only beaten half a length by Foundry in the Voltigeur and the price differential between those two (Foundry is around 6/1) is excessive. With that being the Ballydoyle colt's first outing of the season I suppose the rationale is that he has more scope than my selection and that is true to a certain extent but then again having your second run of the campaign at Town Moor in a lung bursting race like the Leger is far from ideal in my opinion. This year's race doesn't look choc full of quality and the animals involved who represent the Derby form don't really appeal and neither does the horse who heads the market. They're all just a bit skinny in such an open renewal. Talent should outrun her price and if Secret Number was shorter I might have plumped for her at 12s. My selection isn't bred to particularly thrive over longer distances but he races like he will appreciate the Leger trip and having Alleged as his Damsire can't hurt.

The main action of the weekend is over at Longchamp on Sunday with the Arc trials and the Prix du Moulin. My main two bets for the Arc now that Sky Hunter has been transferred to Godolphin are Flintshire who runs in the Prix Niel and Orfevre who takes in the Prix Foy. Fingers crossed they enhance their claims for the big one. I have had a bet in the Moulin where Magician return to action after a poor run at Royal Ascot where he ran despite injuring himself at home in the days leading up to the St James's Palace Stakes. Before that unfortunate episode this colt looked full of promise and I am happy to take some 4/1 about him for this Group 1 event. Likely favourite Olympic Glory is respected but I have a feeling his run in the Marois wasn't as good as it seemed at the time and I do believe that Magician is simply a better racehorse. I hope to top up on the day.

St Leger:
Secret Number £20ew @ 20/1 (lost)

Prix Du Moulin:
Magician  (NR) £30

(+132.50)

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Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £30w @ 19/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Orfevre £20w @ 76/10
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1
Non Runners - £55 lost

Champion Stakes:
Intello £19w @ 78/10


----
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1
Cue Card £15w @ 10/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

Jewson:
Chatterbox £10w @ 25/1 (NRFB)

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

Haydock and Leopardstown - 7th Sept

A couple of Group 1's on either side of the Irish Sea today and both have contenders towards the head of the betting market that I want to take on.

At my local track I'm against both Lethal Force and Garswood at the prices. The former is the best horse in the Sprint Cup but his high class wins this season have been on fast summer ground and he won't get that today. Garswood hasn't run over this trip as a 3yo and his win in the Lennox at Goodwood reads average at best for the level. He's simply too short. I've sided with the most consistant Gordon Lord Byron who was second in the race last year on faster ground than he encounters today. He doesn't need cut in the ground but he does seem to find one or two with more speed at the end of his races at the top grade on good ground or faster and so good to soft over this stiff 6f is ideal. My only concern is that sprint Group contests are more open to shock results than events over a mile or further, something we saw in the Nunthorpe a fortnight ago. For this reason part of my bet is each way and part with the free bet concession if your horse finishes second. With Ladbrokes joining Hills in offering this via the RP App it's something I'll be taking advantage of more over the coming months.

In Ireland more rain is forecast today and that leaves Declaration of War and The Fugue seemingly at the mercy of Al Kazeem who in theory should return to form after "looking after himself" at York. I'm not convinced the ground is 100% the only reason he ran below his best at the Knavesmire and at the prices none of the front three appeal at all. I have a sneaky that Kingsbarns might actually be up to winning this. For me both Al Kazeen and Declaration of War have been a touch overrated throughout the season and are vulnerable to some new blood. It's a big ask for last year's best 2yo but I'm willing to take it a risk for smallish money.

Sprint Cup:
Gordon Lord Byron £20ew @ 9/2 and £25w @ 9/2 (won)

Champion Stakes:
Kingsbarns £20w @ 7/1 (lost)
Kingsbarns/Orfevre (Arc) £15dbl @ 7/1 and 7/1

(+202.5)

York - 24th Aug / Ante-Post

Two bets the last couple of days and two seconds. Things haven't gone my way recently and the rain York had overnight on Thursday blunted Shea Shea's speed and may well have cost him the race. Of course that rain would also have gone against The Fugue if it had arrived 24 hours earlier but that's racing.

The course has had a further 15mm overnight and it has played havoc with the Ebor where we now have just 14 runners. Things have gone my way in this race as I'm sitting pretty with a score each way four places on Tiger Cliff at a very juicy looking 12/1. I topped up last night at 7/1 and and this stayer (ran well at the royal meeting over 2m4f) has everything in his favour today. He's won a handicap with a similar amount of runners already this season and being by high class German stallion Tiger Hill I expect him to like the ground he encounters today. I'm overdue a half decent winner.

On the ante-post front I've been told that Orfevre is scheduled to fly to Paris today in preparation for another tilt at the Arc. He's had bleeding issues this year but with the technology they have in Japan and I'm pretty sure a lot of veterinary expertise the fact that he's on his way over is a good sign and I have readjusted my position on the race by backing last year's runner-up and laying off my position on Treve at the same price I had previously backed her at. Ultimately Orfevre is the best horse currently in the race and I want to be with him, especially after what happened last year.
Elsewhere the horse that made my season in 2012, Bronze Angel, hasn't run so far this year but I see he has been entered for a repeat bid in the Cambridgeshire on 28th Sept. He won the race last year a shade comfortably only getting the lead close home and winning by 3/4 of a length and with Mull of Killough and Mukhadram going on this season and winning stakes races it's a renewal that has worked out incredibly well. I cannot resist some 16/1 about him.


Ebor Handicap:
Tiger Cliff £20ew @ 12/1 and £20w @ 7/1 (won)

Betfair Cash-Out Handicap (Goodwood)
Cape Peron £10w (NR)

(+17)

--------------
Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £15w @ 16/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Sky Hunter £30w @ 51/1
Flintshire £15w @ 20/1
Orfevre £20w @ 76/10
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Gentildonna £10w @ 33/1
Bravodino £5w @ 76/1

----
King George:
Al Ferof £20w @ 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Jezki £13w @ 20/1
My Tent or Yours £20w @ 95/10

World Hurdle:
Monksland £5w @ 28/1

York - 23rd Aug

I thought Venus de Milo ran an absolute cracker today but was unfortunate to come up against a filly at the peak of her powers who thoroughly enjoyed the conditions on the Knavesmire. The Fugue was the obvious winner a long way out and comparing the way she travelled today with her effort at Sandown when I backed her for the Eclipse is a bit of tough one to swallow. This year, not just on the flat but over Jumps as well, has seen me score a lot of seconds. Not pleased.

The Nunthorpe tomorrow looks a toughie on paper but there is an awful lot of deadwood in the field and I fancy Shea Shea quite strongly. He ran an excellent race last time out over further than is ideal in the July Cup but the key to his chance tomorrow is the track. 5f on a flat course is just what he needs and I expect him to reverse form with Sole Power who narrowly beat him in the King's Stand. At Meydan in March Shea Shea had a couple of decisions over his old rival and York is much more like that track in terms of lack of gradient than it is Ascot. Confident selection.

Nunthorpe Stakes:
Shea Shea £60w @ 4/1 (lost)

(-413)

York - 22nd Aug

A surprise today in the Juddmonte with both market leaders running below form. Admirable consistency from Declaration of War though. gutsy.

I mentioned on Tuesday in my preview for the race that I thought Venus de Milo was overpriced for the Yorkshire Oaks and the 6/1 I somehow managed to snaffle looks excellent value now. I have topped up at 3/1 and expect her to win tomorrow

Yorkshire Oaks:
Venus de Milo £60w @ 375/100 (lost)

(-353)

York - 21st Aug

I didn't think I'd be betting today as I thought Al Kazeem and Toronado were priced up about right at around evs/3s respectively when it was confirmed the latter would be taking part in the Juddmonte.
However the money has kept coming in the Hannon inmate and Ladbrokes this morning were going 13/8 the pair. I'm surprised but happy to take that price on Al Kazeem.

The International is a race with a history choc full of middle distance winners and I tend to favour the animals with proven stamina when tackling it. It's also a negative that Toronado is coming here as somewhat of an afterthought. If Olympic Glory hadn't run so well in the Marois it wouldn't be happening, they want to keep both horses apart from now on it seems. You could pick holes in Al Kazeem's form but he has looked a tough, resilient animal each time he's run and surely will beat this field today.

I'm not in love with having my normal stake on shorties so I've split my bet into a single and a couple of doubles with a couple of selections in the Voltigeur, the Group 2 over 12f that precedes the big race. Telescope seems awfully short for this contest for all he still looks a horse of some promise. The same connections couldn't win this with Harbinger a few years back and he's worth taking on. I've gone with Willie the Whipper who finished a good sixth (albeit slightly flattered coming from the back in a strongly run race) in the Prix Du Jockey Club and Secret Number who found all sorts of trouble in running in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood but who looks a creature who will really appreciate the long flat straight he gets here.

International Stakes:
Al Kazeem £40w @ 13/8 (lost)

Voltigeur:
Willie the Whipper/Al Kazeem £10dbl @ 12/1 and 6/4
Secret Number/Al Kazeem £10dbl @ 5/1 and 6/4

(-293)

Ebor Meeting

This is probably my favourite meeting of the whole season on the flat. I've attended on lots of occasions and was at the track for Dayjur's Nunthorpe back in 1990. He's still the best horse I've seen in person on the level.

The race of the week is the Juddmonte tomorrow but I'm a tad disappointed in the turnout this year. As admirable as Al Kazeem is I was hoping to oppose him but the field he faces doesn't have a candidate to do this with. Toronado looks a doubtful stayer and Declaration of War surely has been over raced. It's a shame Ruler of the World was taken out as I think this would have been ideal for him.

Elsewhere I've already mentioned the big handicap on Saturday in a previous post and the only other bet I have thus far is Venus de Milo in the Yorkshire Oaks on Thursday. I managed to get 6/1 matched on Betfair last night and I think she's way overpriced. The Fugue heads the market but is vulnerable to a proper stayer in this sort of contest. Last year I backed Shareta against her and whilst my selection this time around hasn't quite the profile of that filly she is open to all sorts of improvement over the trip, especially if she gets a decent gallop. Last time out at Cork and in the Irish Oaks before that only a modest pace was set and she was doing her best work at the end of both contests. Another point is that The Fugue comes into this race in nowhere near the same kind of form as she was in last season. Of the others I have no clue why Wild Coco was shorter than the Ballydoyle filly when I placed my bet and Talent and Riposte are held on form.

My cliff horse, Cape Peron, is entered in a handicap at Goodwood over 7f on Saturday and I've taken some 8/1. He's not the sort of horse to go mental on ante-post because of his ground dependency but this step back in trip will really suit him as he has bags of speed and he'll be much shorter on the day if he takes part.

Yorkshire Oaks:
Venus de Milo £15w @ 6/1

Ebor:
Tiger Cliff £20ew @ 12/1

Betfair Cash-Out Handicap:
Cape Peron £10w @ 8/1