Paul Nicholls hasn't trained a Festival winner over fences since 2009. Ruby Walsh has a similar barren run with his rides over the bigger obstacles.
I hope one of these two strange stats comes to an end tomorrow as I have backed Wonderful Charm and Felix Yonger for the JLT Novices' Chase that opens day 4. Felix Yonger is very much a ground dependant horse who jumps beautifully out of good ground but struggles with cut. His 15 length demolition of Trifolium at Navan at the start of December (where I backed the Gigginstown animal) was one of the slickest jumping performances I can remember from a novice and I was always going to back him for whichever Festival race he appeared in after that. He was a well held second to Simonsig in the Neptune a couple of years back, a race where he wasn't fancied and not exactly ridden to win being anchored at the back throughout, and I just feel we could see something special from him tomorrow if he jumps like he can. Wonderful Charm I did initially have down as an RSA type and I think there is a chance he could get outspeeded in this like Champagne Fever did in the Arkle. I like the horse a lot though, his jumping has improved with every run this season after initially coming to my attention with the way he powered up the straight at Wincanton in November, winning from a good yardstick despite not being that fluent over his fences that day. Oscar Whisky looks the main danger to the two I've backed but Wonderful Charm has an 8lb pull with him for a narrow defeat at Cheltenham in December, and he also has more scope for improvement as well. I'll be very disappointed if one of my two selection don't win this as I came into the week thinking this was one of my main chances of a winner.
Al Ferof has drifted over the last few days with murmours about his trainer not fancying him that much but I don't buy that. I watched the Betfair preview and he just admitted he didn't stay the three miles last time out at Newbury on heavy ground. I first backed him for the Ryanair way back in October at 20/1 and it's the perfect race for him. Trip, ground and track will suit and I believe we will see a totally different animal here than was in evidence at Kempton. He was never comfortable in the King George, never got into a proper jumping rhythm and yet stayed on in the straight which suggests the engine is still there. I respect Dynaste and Benefficient but Al Ferof is my biggest bet of the week and I'm desperate for him to win given the harsh words that has come his way in the last week or so. He's the only horse running at Cheltenham that represents the 2011 Supreme Novices' with Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre injured so it's up to the winner of that now legendary race to keep the run going of Festival victories.
The clash between Big Buck's and Annie Power in the World Hurdle should be one of the highlights of the week. Despite never having run over the trip I think the mare is a bit of a good thing and I expect her to win. Her presence tempers enthusiasm for the bet I have on Rule The World but I've beaten the book and hope he can grab a place.
JLT Novices' Chase:
Chatterbox NRFB £10 (Felix Yonger @ 7/2) (lost)
Champagne Fever NRFB £20 (Dynaste @ 7/2) (won)
Felix Yonger £44w @ 79/10 (lost)
Wonderful Charm £45w @ 67/10 (lost)
Ryanair:
Al Ferof £82w @ 96/10 (lost)
World Hurdle:
Rule The World £20ew @ 20/1 (lost)
£10 Each Way Doubles:
Trifolium (Arkle) (third) and Fingal Bay (Pertemps) (won) 5/1 and 8/1
(-615.25)
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