RIP
Very much a day packed with mixed feelings. On the one hand I thought the action was exciting with some good performances and interesting horses for the future. But on the other the Champion Hurdle was a let down after such a big build up. Yes I had the winner but the awful fate that befell Our Conor marred the occasion.
Jezki's victory gives me a very strong hand in the opener tomorrow with a tidy each way double going onto Red Sherlock. He's a horse I wouldn't have backed in a single so it's slightly strange that he could go a long way to making my week now. I don't think it's that competitive a race and I just thought he was a lock for the frame. Faugheen should be a formidable opponent and with such a good position on the race I have used the free bet I received from Victor Chandler via Briar Hill's non-participation in the contest on the favourite. He has a huge engine but his jumping doesn't look the best. The comparisons I have read with Pont Alexandre, who was a beaten shortie in this last season, aren't particularly valid as that horse was much more of a chaser in looks than Faugheen. Ballyalton looked a horse of some promise before the turn of the year. A very good traveller who goes well on good ground, he has his conditions tomorrow and is a fair each way bet. His form has been somewhat let down a few times recently and I doubt he's up to winning this (he also looks more of a chaser) but I like the horse and think he'll go well.
The RSA looks a very competitive heat and I was possibly a bit premature backing Smad Place after his win at Newbury last month. He jumps well and should appreciate decent ground but like I said this is competitive and the price I have isn't massive value by any means. I think I just fell for his exuberance, always a danger when a grey is jumping fences in a bold, taking fashion. As we saw today in the Arkle adapting to these unusual conditions from a recent ground standpoint will be key and it's very much up in the air who will be most up to the task. It's not a race to get heavily involved in.
The Queen Mother is as weak a renewal as I can remember and I took a chance that Baily Green would go for the race when all the rumours circulating Sprinter Sacre went into overdrive. Arkle winners/placed horses have a great record in the following year's Queen Mother and although I'm not a stats kind of punter I do think they're worth looking at if there is a bit of logic to them. This is one instance where that is the case. Two mile chasing is a young horses game in the main and it stands to reason that a horse good enough to place or win an Arkle is naturally going to be a contender over course and distance twelve months down the line. Finian's Rainbow is a good recent example of an Arkle runner-up who strengthened up the following year and improved enough to take the all aged two mile championship. That said last year's Arkle was pretty weak and Baily Green will have had to improve a great deal to win tomorrow.
A large part of my betting strategy this season for Cheltenham has been itilising the NRFB offer at Victor Chandler. I count all the horses backed in this manner who miss the engagement I have backed them in as losers with the concession in brackets next to their name.
Neptune Novices':
Briar Hill NRFB £20 (Faugheen @ 9/4) (won)
Ballyalton £5w @ 21/1 and £10ew @ 20/1 (second)
RSA:
Wonderful Charm NRFB £25 (Smad Place @ 7/1)
Smad Place £25w @ 76/10 (lost)
Champion Chase:
Baily Green £20ew @ 185/10 (fell)
£10ew doubles:
Jezki (CH) (won) and Red Sherlock (Neptune) (lost) 9/1 and 9/2
Carlingford Lough (RSA) (lost) and Al Ferof (Ryanair) 14/1 and 6/1
(-491.75)
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