30/03/2014

Aintree Festival

With the five day entries for all three days having been made this meeting looks a cracker this year with the opening day in particular choc full of good events.

I'm hoping Fox Norton takes his place in the Juvenile Hurdle that kicks off the three days. He looks a good ground horse and his form has worked out well. I had him at a big price for the Triumph and was gutted when Nick Williams pulled him out and I reckon with Calipto and Activial in the race he'll be an each way price. 

The Betfred Bowl has been priced up already by one or two layers and it won't be a surprise to anyone who's read this blog before that I've taken some 7/2 about First Lieutenant. You could say he's my cliff horse as I do seem to back him almost everytime he runs. But I would argue that he's an animal that continues to be underrated by the layers. His opening price for this is 7/2, as opposed to 7/4 about Silviniaco Conti - a horse First Lieutenant beat in this very race twelve months ago. Factor in that the Nicholls horse completed the Gold Cup this season, thus having a harder race than he did when falling last year, and that my selection missed Cheltenham altogether - and one can only conclude the price discrepancy between the two is incorrect.
Of course it isn't a two horse race and Dynaste will be a formidable opponent. He has a reputation as a bit of an inconsistant beast but his overall record, especially in chases, contradicts this. I will probably cover on him.

Friday's card doesn't appeal quite as much from a punting angle although I think Module will go well in the Melling Chase. The line-up for that race looks ridiculous compared to 2013's.

I've added Rocky Creek to my National bets at 20/1. I'll add my reasons on the day of the race.


Ante-Post:

Betfred Bowl:
First Lieutenant £20w @ 7/2

Grand National:
Double Seven £10ew @ 33/1 NRNB
The Rainbow Hunter £10ew @ 40/1 NRNB
Rocky Creek £10ew @ 20/1 NRFB (6 places)

--
2000 Guineas:
Toormore £20w @ 8/1

Derby:
Berkshire £10w @ 25/1

--
Arkle:
Josses Hill £10w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Champagne Fever £10w @ 20/1

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