17/06/2014

Royal Ascot - Day 2

    Not too much damage done today with Hot Streak getting placed and how impressive was Kingman? That sort of performance is what flat racing is all about.

    I have a couple of bets lined up for tomorrow. In the main event I think Treve is vulnerable at odds-on and will take her on, especially as she has shortened noticeablywith a lot of favourites going in today. Initially I was looking at Mukhadram as he ran well in the Prince of Wales last season but the ground is riding fast and that brings Magician right into it. His best two runs last season, in the Irish 2000 Guineas and the Breeders Cup Turf, both took place on a firm surface and he's very backable at around 6/1. 3yo Arc winners who race on as older animals very rarely run to the same level of form they achieved in Paris - I believe the prep a typical French 3yo gets together with the favourable wfa they receive are advantageous factors they miss as 4yos and they just never look as good. Couple this with ground much faster than she'd have encountered in the past and it's easy to oppose Treve. I have backed Magician with the usual Hills concession (money back as a free bet if your selection is second.)

    I have a couple of Marwan Koukash owned creatures in my tracker at present and he loves a runner at Ascot almost as much as he does at Chester. With that in mind I was delighted to see that Angel Gabrial isn't running this week as I have him in mind for the Northumberland Plate where I will be going for a four figure plunge. Gabrial's Kaka however does have an entry, in the Hunt Cup at tea time tomorrow and at 20/1+ he rates a decent bet. He went into my tracker when second in a hot Haydock handicap towards the end of April. He was anchored at the back of the field that day in a not particularly strongly run race and had to come wide to make a challenge in the last furlong. He just failed to get up but was much better than the bare result and he has a big race in him. It's a hot event naturally and his draw worries me so there's an element of place insurance in my wager as winning the race his side but finding himself away from the key action is always a concern in such a big field.

EDIT: 18/6 13:17
    As ever with big meetings there is always a chance of something catching my eye in the morning because of a drift and that has happened in the Duke of Cambridge at 4.25. I can understand why a lot of punters prefer Integral over Esoterique today - the latter was race fit after two runs when they met in May yada yada, but the price differential (9/4,11/2 respectively) is daft now and I've backed the Fabre filly. She travelled so well that day at Newmarket but I think her stamina was giving out towards the end of the race and so a return to a mile, but one with a stiff finish, is ideal for her. Sky Lantern is feared but I've heard on the grapevine that she weighs more than Toronado so will probably need the race - like she did last season.

Prince of Wales's Stakes:
Magician £15w @ 64/10 and £25w @ 6/1 (mbs) (2nd, free bet to come)

Duke of Cambridge Stakes:
Esoterique £40w @ 11/2 (lost)

Royal Hunt Cup:
Gabrial's Kaka £20w @ 22/1 and £10ew @ 20/1 (5pl) (Spencered)

(+454.25)

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