Ante-Post

    Yesterday was a bit of a kick in the teeth, two bets - both pulled up. I probably overrated Charmix quite a bit and although opposing horses unproven in conditions is normally a good idea their class has to be considered - although Yanworth did step up markedly yesterday. Another thing is I find it a lot easier to work out if a horse will stay or improve for a trip on the level as flat pedigrees are easier to read. I was more disappointed with O'Faolains Boy who should have been right there on form. I cannot understand why the trainer wouldn't have him ready for the race and her runners are to be avoided in future.

    Anyway, Festival clues abounded, both at Cheltenham and Doncaster. In the Argento Djakadam's fall probably ensures Vautour runs in the Gold Cup as his owner surely won't risk being solely represented by a horse who has fallen twice at the track. This is pleasing not just because I have Vautour as nice cover to Don Poli in the blue ribband, it also makes the Ryanair a very juicy betting race. Apache Stronghold is out now but Valseur Lido is an able substitute in my portfolio given their close form ties and I think Vibrato Valtat will improve for a step up in trip. He's been finishing legless recently chasing two milers and a more patient ride over further will see him finish his races with more gusto in my opinion.

    I was initially a tad disappointed in Shantou Village but having re-watched the race three or four times it appears he just bumped into a monster on the day. He more than likely goes for the Albert Bartlett now and I actually think he's the likeliest winner of that race. I wasn't that impressed with Barter's Hill, he looks all over a chaser to me, and under more suitable underfoot conditions make Shantou Village still good value at 10/1. I have topped up.

    Desoto County went into my tracker after his fine run last time out at Leopardstown. He was disadvantaged by the position he was put in during most of that race and looks well handicapped off that effort and has a big one in him - hopefully at Newbury, but I'll also back him at Cheltenham if he makes the trip.



Betfair Hurdle:
Desoto County £10w @ 12/1

--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10

Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 NRNB

Neptune:

Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:

Native River £5w @ 28/1

Queen Mother:

Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:

Sizing John £20w @ 132/10

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1

Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:

Apache Stronghold NR £18

Champagne West £5w @ 54/1

Valseur Lido £25w @ 13/1 NRNB
Vibrato Valtat £10w @ 16/1 NRNB

Triumph Hurdle:

Gibralfaro £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett:

Shantou Village £25w @ 116/10

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £35w @ 64/10 NRNB

Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:

Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

Cheltenham - 30th Jan

    On the odd occasion I take a price about a horse mid week and he or she drifts before the Saturday of the race I see it as a bad sign but not so with O'Faolains Boy tomorrow. I thought the race would cut up more than it has to be sure but with a Mullins animal at odds-on and a Grand National winner in the line-up also it stands to reason that my selection wouldn't be grabbing the headlines. As a former RSA winner (Smad Place in behind) we know the track suits and the horse loves a bit of cut. I think 10/1 tomorrow is bordering on insulting and have topped up.

    The Neptune trial later on in the card is a rip snorter of a race and as a Shantou Village ante-post Festival backer I want to see a good run but the deep ground is a worry and with favourite Yanworth not guaranteed to stay this is a race with a nice punting angle to it. Charmix has done little wrong this season, he will stay, he acts well on soft ground, his form has been boosted today by the second from his last run at Newbury - and he's a very backable price. If Shantou Village isn't at his best I wouldn't be too concerned as we are pretty certain to get better ground in six weeks - for now though I'm more concerned with getting Harry Fry's horse in the winner's enclosure as I started this season well but have gone into the red recently and would like a change in fortune please. Tomorrow's racing at both headquarters and Doncaster is top draw and hopefully will give us loads of Festival clues - I'm hoping for decent runs from Champagne West, Holywell and Vaniteux as well as the horses already mentioned. Good luck with your bets.

Argento Chase:

O'Faolains Boy £15w @ 8/1 and £15ew @ 10/1 (pu)

Neptune Novices' Hurdle:

Charmix £25w @ 8/1 and £15ew @ 13/2 (pu)

(-126.49)

Ante-Post

    A couple of years ago now I backed Many Clouds in the Reynoldstown Novices' at Ascot and Smad Place in the RSA Chase at the Festival. On both occasions my selection was beaten into second by the Rebecca Curtis trained O'Faolains Boy. This Saturday all three are entered in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham and all three are probably supposed to play bit part roles to Gold Cup fav Djakadam. Chances are that will happen but I cannot have it that Many Clouds and Smad Place are two points shorter in the market for this trail than OFB. It's true that the two aforementioned have both gone onto greater things since they bested Rebecca's charge, they have both improved. However O'Faolains Boy still has a deal of scope about him and I was particularly impressed with how he jumped at Newbury in December, at 8/1 he offers a little bit of value - conditions will be his optimum after all. Djakadam should win on all known form, but 4/11 does seem too short.


Argento Chase:
O'Faolains Boy £15w @ 8/1


--
Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10

Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 NRNB

Neptune:

Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:

Native River £5w @ 28/1

Queen Mother:

Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:

Sizing John £15w @ 13/1

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1

Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:

Apache Stronghold £18w @ 35/1

Champagne West £5w @ 54/1

Valseur Lido £10w @ 14/1 NRNB

Triumph Hurdle:

Gibralfaro £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett:

Shantou Village £15w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £15w @ 7/1 NRNB

Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:

Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

Ascot - 23rd Jan

    Aside from the odd Cheltenham top up I've been inactive on the betting front in recent weeks and I feel refreshed and ready for a good year. Last year I was a big supporter of the Skelton trained Value at Risk and he was one of my main fancies for the Festival. He actually travelled and jumped well enough in the Albert Bartlett before fading around two out and it's possible he just didn't fully stay in what was a grinder of a renewal. Unfortunately his chasing career has been a horror show thus far with two falls from two appearances and so he appears back over hurdles tomorrow. The top and bottom of it is I'm backing him because he looks very well treated off 142 and with 18 runners we have very good each way terms. I also think this could be his trip given the possibility it was lack of stamina that did for him last March.

"40 Years of Keltbray" Holloway's Handicap Hurdle:

Value at Risk £20ew @ 9/1 (lost)

(-26.49)

Ante-Post

    I haven't done an AP update for a while so here goes. I've added one or two bets on horses who left a good impression over the holiday period, especially in the NRNB Championship races. My thoughts behind my Festival bets this year will come on the day - I haven't as much exposure this year and I have it in my mind that too much musing ante-post can lead to non runner angst. So less flanneling and fewer NR cash loss. Nice.

EDIT 8/1, 13/1, 16/1

Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Altior £20w @ 7/1

Champion Hurdle:

Peace and Co £25w @ 122/10
Nichols Canyon £10ew @ 13/2 NRNB

Neptune:
Shantou Village £10w @ 16/1

RSA:
Native River £5w @ 28/1

Queen Mother:
Felix Yonger £20ew @ 33/1 NRNB

JLT Novices' Chase:
Sizing John £15w @ 13/1

World Hurdle:

Whisper £15w @ 13/1
Windsor Park £20w @ 14/1 NRNB

Ryanair:
Apache Stronghold £18w @ 35/1
Champagne West £5w @ 54/1
Valseur Lido £10w @ 14/1 NRNB

Triumph Hurdle:
Gibralfaro £5w @ 25/1

Albert Bartlett:
Shantou Village £15w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:

Don Poli £30w @ 94/10 and £15w @ 7/1 NRNB
Vautour £10w @ 12/1 and £10w @ 8/1 NRNB

Holywell £5w @ 43/1

Any Race:
Shantou Village £10w @ 10/1

Cheltenham - 1st Jan

    Top Notch has been a bit of a nearly horse this season but tomorrow's Relkeel hurdle over two and a half miles looks tailor made for him as he's always looked a horse who'd appreciate further than the minimum trip. Add to that the weight he gets off Whisper and Cole Harden and the form boosts he's received over the holiday period from Hargam and Identity Thief and I can only conclude that 5/2 is a steal. Simple as that really.

    It's no surprise I've been thinking of backing Aubusson in the Dipper earlier on in the card but he'll need to improve a lot over what he achieved at Uttoxeter on his chasing bow and Three Musketeers looks a formidable opponent so I'm leaving him alone.

Relkeel Hurdle:

Top Notch £50w @ 5/2 (lost)

(+13.51)

Leopardstown - 28th Dec

    Willie Mullins is a fantastic trainer but I feel some his non Ricci owners have to sort of take a backseat with their horses, something we see today with Arctic Fire asked to tackle three miles on deep ground despite there being a perfectly good race for him over his best trip tomorrow. I'm not too bothered though as his presence at the head of the market for the Christmas Hurdle in a couple of hours has made it a good race to get involved in and 4/1 about Martello Tower is just too big. Last season's Albert Bartlett winner has optimum conditions today and although it's a slight negative that this is his first run of the season I think that the price is enough of a compensation. With any sort of pipe opener under his belt he'd be by far the most likely winner of this so 4s is well worth snapping up. Arctic Fire isn't his only worthwhile rival and Alpha Does Obeaux is well respected but this horse looks more a chaser to me, he's not that economical at his flights, and ultimately it comes down to how ready the selection is for this test. This is a Grade 1 contest so you would think his trainer would have him close to 100%. That's the logic anyway.

Christmas Hurdle:
Martello Tower £40w @ 4/1 (lost)

(+63.51)

Kempton - 27th Dec

    Despite a losing day overall yesterday I thoroughly enjoyed the racing and Tea for Two's win was so heart warming. Following a stable does make a winner, especially in a big race, all the sweeter and the sky is the limit for this horse. As for the King George, Vautour ran an ungodly race to go so close despite losing ground by jumping to the left at a lot of his fences and if he were mine I'd be going for gold with him as Cheltenham will suit him much more and he will probably have his ground as well.

    Just the one bet today. Sprinter Sacre should win the Desert Orchid but can we say for sure he's back? I kind of want to ask that question at 8/13 and with Sire De Grugy being if anything even less trustworthy I reckon Vibrato Valtat is worth a small play at 8/1. He finished legless in third at Sandown behind SDG but he got too far behind that day and had to use up all his energy reserves just to get on terms before the last couple of fences. Special Tiara doesn't go today so I expect lesser pace and the selection should be more in his comfort zone as they approach the business end of the race. To win he needs the big two to both run below form but given their overall profiles I think that's less than an 8/1 shot.

Desert Orchid Chase:
Vibrato Valtat £30w @ 8/1 (lost)

(+103.51)

Kempton & Leopardstown - 26th Dec

    Today's racing is the highlight of my and I suspect a lot of other people's Christmas. The King George has attracted a monster field, it's the best renewal I can remember. Looking at the declared lineup I kind of feel the race has been analysed to death, there isn't a whole lot of value in the prices now, and I'm happy enough with double figures about the two time defending champ. Hand on heart I don't really think Silviniaco Conti will win but he's slightly overpriced and I do think we'll see a completely different performance today compared to his rather tired effort at Haydock. Don Cossack is a worthy favourite and worth a cover bet.

    As a follower of his stable it's no surprise I'm in Tea for Two's camp in the Feltham. He jumped and travelled superbly at Exeter earlier this month and although there is a smidgeon of doubt about the three miles today I think this has been somewhat overplayed. Yes, he didn't really stay when tried over the trip in the Fixed Brush race at Haydock but that was a big field competitive handicap run at a decent pace and Lizzie had him up top throughout. He faces just the six rivals today and they won't go as fast. Native River is respected and he did look a chaser of promise last time out at Newbury but Un Temps Pour Tout was ridden without much restraint that day and set the race up for him. I also think Kempton will suit the selection more as well.

    Over in Ireland I have bets in the Juvenile Hurdle and the Grade 1 Novice Chase. In the former we have a fascinating market that has turned upside down since it was opened earlier in the week. Initially the Mullins trained Footpad was around 6/4 with Rashaan put in at 5/2 generally and 11/4 in a place. I took that price as he looks easily the form horse in the race based on his impressive run at Fairyhouse and really he wasn't introduced as a shortie simply because his connections aren't that fashionable. Today though I arrive home from Christmas day spent with the family to discover that Footpad has drifted to 3s and a Gordon Elliot creature having his first run for the stable has been hyped into 7/2 with the likely winner still at 5/2. I like this as a Willie Mullins drifter is always a sign they won't win and Rashaan may be the bet of day.

    Not surprisingly there hasn't been a drift on Douvan later on in the card and although he'll likely be fearsome tough to get beat I like my position in the race having taken 7/1 about Ttebbob and just under that price about Sizing John. The former is a s p e c t a c u l a r jumper of a fence who will be hard to peg back, especially on heavy ground. However I've been bummed on my initial bet. When I placed it the each way terms were 1/5 first three. With only four declared though the layer I placed it with are only paying me two places now, even though my bet was ante post. Now, I'm not that bothered as I'm not an each way punter much of the time, but changing your each way terms in this way is out of order. Yes, layers are unfortunate the way this race has played out with regard to the place terms. If they were offering three places punters like me would be in a terrific position - but equally I'm sure there are players out there who took prices about Kitten Rock and others who have lost their money now, and rightfully so. Bookies need to take the rough with the smooth and this invidious changing of terms that should be set in stone once an ante post position has been taken and confirmed is not a good sign for the future. Anyway, back to the race. Ttebbob is 4s now and I have topped up at that and also put in an IR lay bet at 5/2 as he's sure to trade shorter at some point given his running style. I don't fancy Sizing John quite as much given the ground but 6/1 is fair and I've topped up at that price.

    To anyone reading this good luck with your bets today and enjoy the rest of the holiday period.

Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle:
Rashaan £40w @ 265/100 (lost)

Kauto Star Novices' Chase:
Tea for Two £40 @ 5/2 (won)

Racing Post Novice Chase:
Ttebbob £10ew @ 7/1, £40w @ 4/1 (fell)
Sizing John £25w @ 632/100 (2nd)

King George VI Chase:
Silviniaco Conti £25w @ 114/10 (pu)
Don Cossack £20w @ 5/2 (fell)

(+133.51)

Christmas Racing

    I gave myself a self fist bump today as I managed to avoid betting Houblon Des Obeaux in the big handicap chase at Ascot today. He was most disappointing when I was on in the Hennessy and had been dropped 6lbs by the assessor since that run - so with a 5lb claimer on today he was effectively 11lbs lower in the handicap. My resolve to avoid these type races remained strong though so I feel I won money today even though I had no bet.

    The racing over Christmas is mouth watering this season with the King George narrowly being the highlight. I'm not overly confident with my position on Silviniaco Conti given the standard of some of the opposition and the poorish form of the stable, but I have a big price about him and have covered on Don Cossack who looks far and away the biggest danger. I don't necessarily think this horse is the best chaser on the planet, but his form away from Cheltenham reads very well even if some of the events he won were a bit soft and he just appeals more than Cue Card and Vautour who both are better horses going left handed.

    I said the King George was narrowly the highlight of the holiday period action and it's run close by the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on the same day. Douvan, Sizing John, Kitten Rock and Ttebob are all set to line-up and if they all make it we are in for a spectacular race. The former is naturally the market leader but 4/7 is incredibly short and I have to take him on. Yes he jumped perfectly well on his chase debut but Ttebob will go a fearsome pace here putting all his rivals jumping under maximum pressure and so I would rather have that horse and Sizing John (both with more experience over the larger obstacles) in my camp at decent odds than an odds-on shot running for connections who have had shorties turned over twice in this race the last two years. I've watched a lot of novices this season and the three that stand out from a jumping standpoint are No More Heroes, Vaniteux and Ttebob. Vaniteux is out at Christmas as well but is odds-on, Ttebob is 7s. Nice.

King George:

Silviniaco Conti £25w @ 114/10

Don Cossack £20w @ 5/2

Racing Post Novice Chase:

Ttebbob £10ew @ 7/1

Sizing John £10w @ 68/10