Wincanton - 9th Nov

Two bets tomorrow both at Wincanton. When a number of bookmakers went one quarter the odds the first five in the Supreme I used that concession to back Melodic Rendezvous to back up my nice positions on My Tent or Yours and Jezki. Unfortunately he never made the race but (an admittedly tenuous) line of form through Puffin Billy suggests he wouldn't have been that far behind the leading trio in the opening race of the Festival and off 150 in the Elite Hurdle I think he's worth a bet at 3/1. That's a bigger price than I expected and I think the reason is mainly because his one poorish run last season was his debut outing of the campaign. This run tomorrow though is an important one as his trainer has said if they are not happy with him he might go novice chasing rather than continuing a hurdling career at the top level. That suggests to me that he'll be straight enough to do himself justice. I respect Far West but I'm not wholly convinced of the worth of the horses in behind (way behind) Our Conor in the Triumph and this is tough for him tomorrow only getting 4lb of a Grade 1 winner. He's now the same price as the selection but that can't be right. Nicholls horses always seem to be overbet at this, one of his local tracks.

My other bet is a lot more tentative. I've punted Alfie Spinner a number of times in his career but he's been out of form for a good year now and he's dropped from the 140 he was on when he unseated in the Hennessy to the 126 he runs off tomorrow in the Badger Ales. I'm basically hoping Nick Williams has plotted this race out for him and made sure he needed his first run of the campaign. At 33/1 he's worth a small bet.


EDIT 09/11:
Awoken this morning to a big Melodic Rendezvous drift. There are so many guessers out there and it seems this theory abut him possibly needing the run is the dominant theme of the race. I suppose Far West being trained by Nicholls part explains it as well. I've gone in again.

Elite Hurdle:
Melodic Rendezvous £70w @ 9/2 (BOG) (won)

Badger Ales Trophy:
Alfie Spinner £10ew @ 33/1 (2nd)

(+147.5)