Newmarket - 29th Sept

I've been banging on about Bronze Angel since the Royal Meeting in June and tomorrow is D day as he takes in the Cambridgeshire Handicap off bottom weight. I'm so pleased he gets in the race as he was balloted out of the Golden Mile at Goodwood at the beginning of August. I wasn't paying the Britannia Handicap that much attention but his run in that race really caught my eye. He was drawn 17 in the middle of the track and was clear of his opponents there when he was aimed towards the far side to take issue with the leading bunch. What I look for in a handicapper is fast finishing horses who ideally take the lead well inside the final furlong and win by around a length give or take. These animals almost never have their ratings adjusted too much and it pays to follow them. Now, although Bronze Angel didn't win that day at Ascot he really finished well and actually put over a length between himself and the animal in fourth inside the last 200 yards or so. He had to cover more ground in finishing where he did on the track (of the twenty nine runners he was the only one of the first seven home who was drawn higher than eight.) It really was a most taking effort and he has been number 1 on my list of horses to follow ever since.

The prices for the Cambridgeshire came out in August and I had a little bit on at 30 and 34 on Betfair. I didn't expect his odds to contract that much in the mean time as he was still an under the radar type of animal but unfortunately the Pricewise column in the Racing Post selected him as an ante-post selection for the race. This naturally resulted in his odds shortening somewhat but I still managed to get a little bit on each way at 20/1 with Ladbrokes. He's around a 12/1 shot now and I topped up earlier this week. The prices I took initially ensure I have the value about him. I will obviously beat the SP comfortably. Having not run since June he'll be a fresh horse for this which is a bonus and his trainer has booked William Buick for the ride. Another positive. I'm confident he's going to run really well. Any cut in the ground is OK as it was good to soft at Ascot.

Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £60w @ 19/1 and £20ew @ 18/1 (won)


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Ante-Post Update

The next couple of weeks will define my flat season as my two most important bets of the year run on consecutive weekends. First off we have Bronze Angel in Saturday's Cambridgeshire. This is a horse that leapt to the head of my horses to follow list after his excellent run from a poor draw in the Britannia Handicap at the Royal Meeting. He didn't get in a big handicap at Goodwood in July and so has had a fair spell on sidelines. Up until the five day declarations this morning it was looking doubtful whether that he'd get in the Cambridgeshire as well but a lot of horses have been pulled and I believe only two need to come out for him to get a run now. Fortunately I took odds of 30 and 33/1 on Betfair for bits and pieces when the prices came out a month or so ago because Pricewise recently selected him for the race. This has led to his odds crashing somewhat but I have the value and have topped in the meantime.

The Arc is a week later and my position on Orfevre looks very strong. I've backed him again since my last post and I'm very confident. I just hope the ground isn't too soft.

Cambridgeshire:
Bronze Angel £25w @ 24/1 and £10ew @ 20/1

Orfevre £70w @ 12/1
Danedream £10w @ 6/1
Danedream and Boston Bob (RSA Chase) £10dbl @ 6/1 and 10/1
£30 lost on two NR's

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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £35w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1



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1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1 

Ayr - 22nd Sept

The Ayr Gold Cup isn't a race I normally get involved in but I can't resist the claims of The Cheka today given the underfoot conditions. The race meeting was in some doubt earlier in the week because of the amount of rain the west coast of Scotland has had and the ground today is heavy. The Cheka hasn't the speed to cope with 6f animals on decent ground but he was second in the July Cup on deep ground and was also runner up to the top class Moonlight Cloud in the Prix Maurice de Gheest over six and a half at Deauville. Conditions were also testing in that Group 1 contest and I think at 16/1 today with five places being paid he is a fine each way bet. It is true he has a lot of weight and there are some improving types in the race who may be better handicapped but my selection is a big, rangy horse who can carry it.

Ayr Gold Cup:
The Cheka £20ew @ 16/1 (lost)

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Arc/Leger

Camelot stands on the threshold of history tomorrow as he attempts to become the first colt to win the Triple Crown since Nijinsky in 1970. I hope he does it and think he will but he is at the head of a well below crop of 3yo males and has little to beat. I backed Great Heavens ante-post for this in the hope that the ground would have plenty of cut in it but John Gosden runs his filly in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp on Sunday instead.

That race is one of three trials for the Arc and Orfevre takes part in the Prix Foy. His price has contracted sharply in the last few days and I've topped up my position on him. He doesn't have to win on Sunday but I'd like to see a nice run. As I've noted before, the fact that he has a run before his Arc bid is a great sign.

St Leger:
Great Heavens £30w @ 13/1 (NR)

Arc:
Orfevre £60w @ 135/10
Danedream £10w @ 6/1
Danedream and Boston Bob (RSA Chase) £10dbl @ 6/1 and 10/1
£30 lost on two NR's


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Leopardstown - 8th Sept

I blogged about the Irish Champion Stakes earlier in the week and I had hoped to top my bet on Snow Fairy up but the race has cut up badly at the declaration stage with only six runners confirmed. Therefore I've decided to leave it.

Irish Champion Stakes:
Snow Fairy £40w @ 3/1 (won)

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Arc Thoughts

Even though I consider myself more of a jumps than a flat man these days (I would say 60/40 in favour of the former), The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe remains my favourite race of the whole year.

I've backed the winner more often in this race than any other. I had money on Suave Dancer, Subotica, Hellisio, Montjeu, Bago, Hurricane Run, Rail Link and Dylan Thomas when they won in Paris in October.

This year we have a market at this present time with a huge amount of juice in it. Best prices now:

Camelot 3/1
Danedream 6/1
Nathaniel 7/1
Orfevre 12/1
Meandre 16/1
Snow Fairy 18/1
Masterstroke 20/1

I can't have Camelot one iota. Only one 3yo colt has won an all aged Group 1 this year, an appalling stat. It's a poor crop. Add to that Aidan O'Brien's bad record in the race with his 3yos and also the fact that the horse is running in the St Leger and he is not so much opposed as completely overlooked. Nathaniel is another horse I cannot have. He's only a point longer than Danedream despite the fact that the German filly holds him on form, is proven on the course, and whereas she has had her prep in a relatively straight forward German Group 1 that was run at a steady pace Nathaniel runs in the Irish Champion on Saturday. I don't think he'll win that and even if he does it will be a hard battle. Not ideal prep for an Arc. In 2003 Dalakhani won the race narrowly from Mubtaker with High Chaparral five lengths back in third. That wasn't the latter's form, but whereas the front two had prepped for the Arc with easy successes in the Niel and the September Stakes, High Chaparral had contested the Irish Champion and had a lung bursting duel with the top class Falbrav that surely left it's mark. Time and again we see Arc winners who have campaigns geared towards the race and it really does pay to side with these animals.

My money is already down on Orfevre for this. Japan's triple crown winner is such an exciting horse to watch. Here he is earlier this summer

To me he has that flashy brilliance that Deep Impact had. Crucially though Orfevre will take in the Prix Foy on Arc trials day. This is something Deep Impact didn't do in his prep for the Arc and his rustiness cost him in my opinion. He hadn't run since the June of that year and that told in October. Orfevre is a great price for this and I see Danedream as pretty much the only danger. Therefore she's added as cover.



Orfevre £40w @ 15/1
Danedream £10w @ 6/1
Danedream and Boston Bob (RSA Chase) £10dbl @ 6/1 and 10/1
£30 lost on two NR's

Irish Champion Stakes

At this stage Snow Fairy looks a tad too big for this at a generally available 3/1. The weather forecast suggests fast ground and I think Nathaniel looks a bit short. 6/4 seems very skinny, particulary for a horse that likes to get his toe in. Ed Dunlop's mare acts on any ground, ran a cracker in this very race last year and tends to come on for her first run of the season. The rest seem to be either 3yo's I don't rate (Imperial Monarch), or animals like Princess Highway and St Nicholas Abbey who surely won't be seen at their best over a mile and a quarter on ground without a lot of juice in it.

Irish Champion Stakes:
Snow Fairy £40w @ 3/1

Ante-Post Update

Bad times on the ante-post front. First off Newfangled breaks her pelvis last week at York and is later put down and then earlier today Valyra had an accident whilst exercising before a run in the Vermeille in a couple of weeks and she has also been put to sleep. Such a shame as they were both nice fillies with great futures. RIP.

Bronze Angel has an entry in the Cambridgeshire on the 29th Sept and I've opened a position on him. He's not run since June and I don't know if he'll prep for the race.

St Leger:
Great Heavens £30w @ 13/1 

Cambridgeshire: 
Bronze Angel £13w @ 30/1

Arc:
Orfevre £40w @ 15/1 
£30 lost on two NR's




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Arkle:
Trifolium £10w @ 27/1

Champion Hurdle:
Spirit Son £35w @ 13/1

RSA Chase:
Fingal Bay £35w @ 12/1

Gold Cup:
Flemenstar £40w @ 12/1



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1000 Guineas:
Newfangled £15w @ 16/1 

York - 24th Aug

Having backed Ortensia already for tomorrow's Nunthorpe I wasn't too happy to see the rain arrive today and it fair bucketed it down for a time. She has won on good to soft but her best form is on good ground or faster. On her two runs over here she actually ran better in the July Cup at Newmarket on heavy than she did at Ascot on good to soft. It's well known that some animals just don't like Ascot and her poor run there can't have been just down to the softness of the ground. I'll assess the situation when I get there as I'm at the track tomorrow and if she's 5/1 or better and the ground is no softer than good to soft I will top my £20 bet up.

My other bet will be Dubai Prince in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes over a mile and a furlong. I backed this horse last time out at Goodwood and he looked like a player in the straight but didn't stay the 12f trip that day. He's a horse with a lot of ability who has had a chequered career and I think this sort of small field Group race just below the top level is his sort of race. The favourite is a 3yo so is readily opposed and the rest look much of a muchness. I think the selection is the best horse in the race who would be shorter than he is if he hadn't disappointed last time out and as I've pointed out that run can be ignored quite easily. Like Ortensia I have backed him already and will top up at the best price I can get on course. That's on the understanding that I can get at least 9/2 though.

Nunthorpe Stakes:
Ortensia £60w @ 51/10 (won)

Strensall Stakes:
Dubai Prince £60w @ 5/1 (won)

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York - 23rd Aug

Frankel was amazing today. I was at York when Dayjur won the Nunthorpe in 1990, and I never thought I'd see another horse scorch up that straight like he did that day. It was a pleasure to behold. Even though I have a position on the race I would dearly love to see the great one go for the Arc in October. His trainer is no fan of the contest however so it probably won't happen.

Thursday's card has a couple of really interesting Group races for the fairer sex and I'll be hoping for a good run from Newfangled in the Lowther. I was happy to take 16/1 about her for next year's 1000 Guineas after her win at Royal Ascot and a similar result tomorrow would see her go quite short for next May's race.

My only bet of the day is on Shareta in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. This French trained filly is a fast ground animal who loved the conditions she faced in last year's Arc where she was a fantastic runner-up despite being a pacemaker. That run was a big step up on all known form but it was the first time she'd had her ground in a big race. This year she's run twice and not won but under foot conditions were soft on both occasions. The good to firm ground will really suit her and at around 4.7 on Betfair I think she's a good value bet. I'm not in love with our 3yo fillies this year and I think 7/4 about The Fugue is poor. She won the Nassau Stakes nicely enough last time out but I thought it was an average renewal of the race and for me she's overrated. The fact remains that Shareta owns the single best piece of form on offer in the race and yet is nowhere near being the market leader.

EDIT: I've been at work since before five and have given the card a good going over and unearthed a bet in the handicap at at 3.05. Anderiego is a course and distance winner twice this year and each time he's taken the lead at around the furlong pole and won reasonably comfortably on both occasions. He looks like he could still be ahead of the handicapper although it is a tougher ask today. He's worth a bet at 10/1

Yorkshire Oaks:
Shareta £60w @ 37/10 (won)

Betfair, Don't settle for less Handicap:
Anderiego £40w @ 10/1 (lost)

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