Ante-Post

    For the first time this season I've been lucking at the market for Arc in October and I like what I see. Jack Hobbs was impressive at the Curragh on Sunday and his excellent trainer said he'll be put away for the summer now and brought back for a Niel/Arc campaign. Contrast this with his Derby conqueror who runs on Saturday in the Eclipse and then probably in the bigger summer 10f contests at York and Leopardstown - hardly ideal preps for the Arc, for which he is half the odds of his stable companion. I took some 10/1 about Jack Hobbs on Sunday.

    I look at the ante-post markets everyday trying to sniff out some angle and I think I've found one in the Coral Charge, a Group 3 over 5f at Sandown this Saturday. Mecca's Angel heads the market, justifiably so, but he was pulled out of the King's Stand a couple of weeks back because of the ground and with the current heatwave there must be an excellent chance he won't take part at the weekend, particularly as it isn't a Group 1. Medicean Man is next in the betting and he ran an excellent race in the King's Stand but subtract his Ascot form from his CV and he looks nothing out of the ordinary and is safely ignored. The rest of the field seems to consist of veterans and handicappers so I have backed the Gosden 3yo Waady at 6/1. I think this horse will start favourite on the day, he's won over course and distance three times and his form this season is very solid. Looking back at his race videos for the year I was actually impressed with his only defeat when he finished behind Adaay at Newbury. He was switched that day and was slightly unfortunate to be away from the action before running on towards the end of the race (he also looked a bit green that day.) He showed speed and a turn of foot last time out and looking at the contenders for the race overall his price sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

    Finally, RIP to Kauto Star. I was always more of a Denman man but I was lucky enough to see Kauto in action three times - His Betfair Chase wins in 2007 and 2009 (when he short-headed Imperial Commander, an absolute stormer of a race.) I was also at Cheltenham when he came down in his one try at the Queen Mother in 2006. He's the best chaser I've seen, a true great. Run free big fella.

Coral Charge:
Waady £25w @ 6/1

John Smith's Cup:
Mount Logan £15w @ 16/1

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe:
Jack Hobbs £15w @ 10/1

--
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

Saint-cloud - 28th June

 

                                                                     Youmzain - 2008


 Tomorrow's big race at Saint-cloud is a fairly easy race to analyse, Treve should win and Dolniya and Flintshire are her dangers. However, the prices look wrong to me and Fabre's horse is a good each way poke at 7/1. He's a big horse being trained for a mid summer/Autumn campaign and possibly needed the run last time out at Epsom, and even if he didn't he ran really well considering a small field/sedate pace kind of affair is completely against him. There's a lot more pace in tomorrow's race and whilst I think Treve will win 7/1 is just too big about the selection.

Grand Prix De Saint Cloud:
Flintshire £25ew @ 7/1 (2nd)

(-1047.25)

Newcastle & Doncaster - 27th June

    I've already posted my bet on the Northumberland Plate. Up until decs time on Thursday I was very keen on Oasis Fantasy but he has been drawn widest of all in stall 21 and so my usual topping up has been limited to a place bet. The odd horse has won this race from a poor berth but they have been front runners who have been hustled into a good early possie in the race. It's possible Ed Dunlop might have it in mind to try the same tactics (he was prominent at Goodwood a couple of starts back) but he was also badly drawn last time out in a big field event at Epsom where he was held up. Hughes was riding and did nothing wrong but he was bumped and checked as he passed horses up the straight, finishing a close third. I have taken 3/1 on the machine about him placing.

    My other bet today is Rio Ronaldo in the last at Doncaster. This horse was the first to enter my tracker this season when he won a Windsor handicap very cosily in April and although he was disappointing last time out at Leicester he was drawn 9/11 that day near the stands rail and was given a strange ride, being switched to race on the far side for no apparent reason and I feel he will be tough to beat in a weaker race this evening given a more sensible ride. I took some 11/4 late yesterday afternoon and he's been well backed since, he's currently 2/1 - a price I've topped up on.

Northumberland Plate:

Oasis Fantasy £35w/£20pl @ 11/1 and 3/1 (lost)

Clair Welch Handicap:

Rio Ronaldo £42w @ 235/100 (lost)

(1057.25)

Northumberland Plate

    Close but no cigar today with Saigon City who started at 5/1 (backed at 14s.) I've been beating the book on a regular basis this season and I feel things will turn around soon.

    Oasis Fantasy has been in my tracker since his excellent run in a Goodwood handicap over 14f in May. That was his first try over more than a mile and a half and he seemed to relish the step up in trip, staying on really well and only just failing to beat the winner (who had first run on him.) I held off backing him in his next race at Epsom on Derby day because he was back down to 12f again but he ran another excellent race. Poorly drawn he found oodles of trouble in running before gunning down the field in the last furlong, only just failing to get up. I do worry slightly that the two miles on Saturday will stretch his stamina too much but then again Goodwood's mile and three quarters is a tough get with it's uphill gradients. I'm happy to take some 10/1 now and will probably have a tickle each way on the day, hopefully for five places.

Northumberland Plate:
Oasis Fantasy £35w @ 10/1

Salisbury - 24th June

    I'm hoping to get back in the winners enclosure with tracker horse Saigon City running in the 4.55 at Salisbury tomorrow. He went into my note book with his second place in a mile handicap on Sagaro day at Ascot where he veered across the track. He's a bit of a tricky customer and has the blinds fitted tomorrow but his rather disappointing run at Newmarket a few weeks ago is more easily explained by the step down in trip rather than any sort of lack of genuineness on his part. He was outpaced at headquarters before staying on at the death and this step back to a mile will really suit. I snapped up the 14/1 available immediately the market opened and he's still very backable at 11s. The favourite is a Qatar Racing 4yo who is unbeaten through three starts and whilst there's no doubt he's a promising horse that last win was on the sand and he's very short at under 2/1. Those odds means this is a terrific each way race.

Molston Coors Handicap:
Saigon City £35ew @ 14/1 (2nd)

(-960.25)

Ascot Aftermath - Ante-Post

    I don't think I can remember a more painful meeting than last week's Royal Ascot. I thought my bets were decent on the whole but nothing went my way. Before the start of it all I posted my final thoughts and of the six ante-post bets I placed only Night of Thunder ran poorly. Indeed two of my main bets, Lucida in the Coronation and The Grey Gatsby in the Prince of Wales's, were the best horses in their respective races but were undone by an unfortunate draw and a bit of an unfortunate ride respectively. I just have to draw a line under the whole affair and keep plugging on. I found a couple of animals for the tracker at least.

    One of those horses, Mount Logan, ran a storming race over a trip too short in the Wolferton and I've backed him at 16s for the John Smith's at York in a fortnight. Ideally this horse needs 12f but York's long straight and extended 10f will be fine and he has massive claims of reversing form with the winner of Saturday's race given how much ground he made up on him in the last half furlong. It can't be underestimated how much more the longer straight at the Knavesmire will suit him.

John Smith's Cup:
Mount Logan £15w @ 16/1

---
Champion Hurdle:
Peace and Co £10w @ 12/1

Royal Ascot - Day 5

    I backed Telescope in the Hardwicke Stakes last season, and managed to get on at 5/2 (returned 7/4.) This year's renewal is far hotter and yet Telescope is shorter - he must be taken on. Like Stoute's horse Postponed was an impressive winner of the Voltigeur as a 3yo and tomorrow's race is only second try at 12f. I expect similar improvement from his last race at the Curragh that we got from The Grey Gatsby on Wednesday. I'm worried about the forecast rain due at Ascot in the morning and have my fingers crossed the racecourse will miss most of it, but things have not gone my way one bit this week so we'll have to see.

    The Golden Jubilee looks a race with a nice betting shape. I want to be against the Aussie horse just because of the travel and also Mustajeeb as he won an egg and spoon race last time out. My pick is Due Diligence who ran well in the race last season when he covered more ground than most in drifting across the track. He clearly wasn't ready first time out but his trainer doesn't bring animals over to this meeting who aren't fit enough and ultimately sans a Slade Power 6/1ish is very fair. I've had some on each way as a couple of layers are paying four places.

Hardwicke Stakes:

Postponed £50w @ 7/2 (3rd)

Diamond Jubilee:

Due Diligence £20w @ 68/10 and £15ew @ 11/2 (lost)

(-1023.25)

Royal Ascot - Day 4

    I think tomorrow's card is absolutely fascinating, particularly the two Group 1's. Ryan Moore has dominated the week to such an extent that his two mounts in the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes, Hootenanny and Found, are both noticeably shorter than they were earlier in the week and I'm taking both on.

    In the first running of the Commonwealth Cup I was already on Limato ante-post at just over 7/2 and have topped up gladly at a huge looking 11/2 earlier this evening. A high class 2yo he ran well over course and distance first time out before running below form on ground not as fast as he likes at Haydock. It's a competitive looking race but he's over priced and his trainer's rather negative comments are as much of a factor as the flood of money coming for anything Moore rides. I never really take much notice of negative comments about a horse from certain trainers - I think Mr Candy just wants to alleviate some of the hype that has surrounded the horse over the spring/early summer. Hootenanny's cramped odds certainly make the market juicy and I've part covered on Anthem Alexander. She won at the meeting last year, goes on the ground, and ran well enough first time out.

    Found is even more of a ripe target in the Coronation Stakes. Her run last time out in the Irish Guineas has been overrated and both Lucida and Ervedya have better form. I backed the former at Newmarket where she covered way more ground than was necessary and am fully involved again at 7/2. I fear the French filly greatly and have covered on her. I've had a terrible week but feel very positive about day four - a winner is just round the corner.

Commonwealth Cup:

Limato £50w @ 51/10 (2nd)

Coronation Stakes:

Lucida £40w @ 7/2 (3rd)

Ervedya £25w @ 9/2 (won)

Anthem Alexander (3rd) Ervedya £10ew dbl @ 7/1 and 4/1

(-923.25)

Royal Ascot - Day 3

    I don't want to write about today's racing -  still feel like I've been punched in the stomach. When you back a horse at 8s and 13/2, he starts at 9/2, he's the best horse in the race - and he gets short headed. I can't adequately put into words how numbing that is. I do believe Ryan Moore would have won on The Grey Gatsby today. The gushing praise he gets when riding a winner makes me want to vomit.

    Anyway, enough of the bitterness. Gold Cup day is tomorrow and we have a favourite in the big race who has no form on decent ground, we have a couple of Ballydoyle horses half the prices they should be. In short it's a race to get stuck into and Mizzou stands out like a sore thumb. He's bred to stay, loves fast ground, has excellent form on the course that has been franked and his price is right in my wheelhouse. It's an obvious bet.

    Putting Green runs in the King George V Handicap that closes the card. He's a tracker horse I backed last time out when he was given too much to do by Hughes who prefers a stablemate in the race (we saw with Moore choosing Cannock Chase over The Grey Gatsby what judges most of them are) and that part explains his juicy 25/1 odds. It's a tough race but he looks a horse who needs a trip and the Queen's horse that beat him the time before Goodwood at Sandown (had run of the race) is nearly half his price despite being a pound or two worse off. Putting Green is way over priced. End of.

Gold Cup:

Mizzou £25w @ 11/2 and £25w @ 5/1 (lost)

King George V Handicap:

Putting Green £20ew @ 25/1 (lost)

(-985.75)

    

Royal Ascot - Day 2

         
                                                                         Vision d'Etat - 2009


    I'm finding it really difficult to be positive as we head into day two of the royal meeting. Today's bets all went down and I was very disappointed in the runs of Night of Thunder and Make Believe in particular. Both ran well below form and that's the sort of thing that completely decimates confidence, it's not the sort of thing you want to see become a common occurence, but it is the sort of thing that can be a theme when one is on a losing streak. This is somewhat worrying during a big meeting.

    I backed The Grey Gatsby for the Prince of Wales's Stakes a week or so ago at a decent looking 8/1. He was very colty in the paddock last time out at the Curragh and I'm basically hoping he can return to the sort of form he showed last year. This race has a history of falling to 12f animals and I think he needs a stiff 10f or further these days. He stayed on really well behind Australia in the International over an extended 10f at York last August and I feel a reproduction of that form will see him go really close. I like the application of first time cheek pieces but I'm not overjoyed with Moore deserting him for Cannock Chase - not so much because I really respect his judgement - I don't, but because Spencer is on instead and I can't remember the last time he was on one of my winners. I've topped up at 13/2 with the money back concession Hills run for Channel 4 races.

    My only other bet is American Hope in the Hunt Cup. I detailed my thoughts on this wager at the weekend so see no need to repeat myself now. Let's hope for a better day.

Prince of Wales's Stakes:
The Grey Gatsby £15w @ 8/1 and £25w @ 13/2 mbs (2nd)

Royal Hunt Cup:
American Hope £20ew @ 25/1 (lost)

(-895.75)