Well, I got the King George completely wrong yesterday. I didn't rate Novellist through his win at Saint-Cloud and he turned in a deeply impressive performance. That being said with Cirrus Des Aigles running way below form It wasn't a fantastic renewal and the German horse is too short for the Arc now. Ektihaam was ridden by his jockey like he was pacemaking for another contender. Daft tactics.
The Group 1 Prix Rothschild today at Deauville sort of has a nice betting shape to it with Elusive Kate looking vulnerable with any cut in the ground. It's listed as Good to Soft but the track had a half hour thunderstorm late yesterday afternoon and I'm taking her on.
Giofra was behind her in the Falmouth but it wasn't just the fast underfoot conditions that were against her in that race. The four runner field was taken along at a gentle tempo by the winner and I feel the bigger field today coupled with more suitable ground conditions can see the Royer-Dupre mare reverse placings. She's not actually had the chance to run over a mile on soft or good/soft since her win in the Falmouth last season and at 7/1 she's worth a go today.
I've also backed Duntle as cover at 6/1. This filly has past the post in first place in her last five races. She's a model of consistency and deserves a Group 1 after losing the Matron Stakes last year in the Stewards room. I prefer her to the 3yos lined up for the race. Kenhope, Peace Berg and Topaze Blanche all ran in the Prix Sandringham at Chantilly in June and they all look decent enough but the first named was put in her place at Royal Ascot by Sky Lantern and that filly apart I remain unconvinced by their quality.
I would feel more comfortable betting in this race if I knew exactly what the ground was like but it must surely be softer than it was last season at this Festival when Elusive Kate ran well twice on good ground. A thunderstorm is a thunderstorm after all.
Prix Rothschild:
Giofra £45w @ 7/1 (lost)
Duntle £25w @ 6/1 (lost)
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