The theme of this flat season has been my ability to beat the odds on a consistent basis without any reward. I must admit I've felt really down about this on a number of occasions but I've drawn an analogy that has sort of perked me up and motivated me to ride it out. What I've imagined is a Roulette table where I was getting paid at bigger odds than the true likelihood of the bets I was placing - so I'm getting 6/4 on black or red or let's say 8/1 about a six number split bet. Just because I'm getting over the odds doesn't mean a guaranteed profit short term - and that is what's happening this season, I'm just on a run of bad short term luck.
I'm hoping for a turning of the tide soon and my bet on Waady in the Coral Charge tomorrow looks an ideal place to start. I took 6/1 earlier in the week in the likelihood of the race cutting up and that is just what has happened. I topped up at 5/2 earlier this evening and I can see the horse starting around 7/4 now. Massive chance.
My other bet is on an old tracker horse, Gabrial's Kaka in the Coral Challenge. I thought long and hard about this bet because he's been a bit of a cliff horse but I just cannot resist him off 95. He was fourth in this race last season off 103 so there's no doubt he's well handicapped unless some sort of decline is setting in. I'm prepared to give the horse the benefit here as in his last three outings two were over 10f - he doesn't stay, and the other over just short of a mile at Chester he ran well in from a bad draw - circling the field and running on at the death. Taking an early price on Waady has worked out fantastic but not so with this bet as he's longer now than when I took 14s on Wednesday evening. This is because of a poor draw but it's not the death knell Oasis Fantasy's was last week and I'm happy enough to top up at 18s.
Coral Charge:
Waady £50w @ 425/100 (won)
Coral Challenge:
Gabrial's Kaka £20ew @ 16/1 (lost)
(-874.75)
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