24/05/2013

Curragh/Epsom

No bets on Saturday's racing despite it's quality. Reckless Abandon tempted me in the Temple Stakes but I just couldn't pull the trigger at 7/2 given his Group 1 penalty and the Irish 2000 Guineas looks priced up about right. The fillies equivalent on Sunday though looks a bit better from a punting point of view. I thought the Newmarket version was really average with some exposed animals like Snow Queen not being beaten very far and I want to be against the fillies who run here after taking in the Newmarket Classic. I'm taking them on with Big Break who looked most impressive in a couple of starts last season, is fantastically well bred and handled by a master trainer to boot. I think 6/1 is very fair.

I'm increasingly using each way doubles these days and with Big Break it's one of those selections where I'm not confident enough to go for a proper bet but the Irish 1000 Guineas doesn't take a huge amount of winning most years and I find it hard to see her out of the places. I'm doubling her with Dunaden in next week's Coronation Cup. He's a most consistent horse who is rarely far away and I think Epsom's long straight will really suit. He was placed in the Prix Ganay over an inadequate 10f and was too far back in the Sheema Classic to make an impression on St Nicholas Abbey but still managed to nick third place near the line. I think the smaller field he'll encounter next Saturday will mean he'll be a lot closer to that horse this time around and I believe he can go close. Again, 5/1 is most fair and it's hard to see him being out of the money.

Irish 1000 Guineas:
Big Break £25w @ 6/1 (4th)

Big Break/Dunaden (Coronation Cup) £20ew double @ 6/1 and 5/1

(+118)

Ante-Post:
Derby:
Ocovango £25w @ 12/1
Sky Lantern (1000G) (won) and Ocovango £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1
Magician £5w @ 25/1

Arc:
Gold Ship £15w @ 25/1
Bravodino £3w @ 99/1


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