Oaks Thoughts

I'm off work all week so have had plenty of time to study the runners in both classics this weekend. The Oaks looks a deal harder than the Derby and I have a horrible tack record in the race but I've had a go nonetheless.

Secret Gesture heads the market and is respected as she was deeply impressive at Lingfield. She'll stay and with normal progression is entitled to go close in a decent looking renewal but she doesn't strike me as the best 5/2 shot in the world and I'm happy to look elsewhere for a bet.

Moth was third in a 1000 Guineas that looks better after Just the Judge won nicely at the Curragh on Sunday  but even though she should appreciate a step up in trip her pedigree suggests 10f  might be her optimum distance and with fillies in the race who are bred to excel over 12f I can't see her finishing the race as strongly as one or two of the others.

Liber Nauticus interests me most of those at the head of the market. She's a big, strong looking filly from the same family as Leger winner Conduit so first time out over ten furlongs at York in the Musidora was never going to suit her - especially when you add in the small field size and the moderate pace they went. She took a while to get going that day but was on top easily near the end of the race and this extra two furlongs with a better gallop will suit. She has the most scope of any of this field and I took some 5.3 on the machine last night.

Of the others Say is 10/1 and that price is based solely on trainer identity and Talent looks more a Ribblesdale type but the Cheshire Oaks was an interesting trial and the first two from that contest re-oppose here at radically different odds. Banoffee is 9/1 and Gertrude Versed is 40s. I think that's too big a price differential as they went a strong pace at Chester and the latter was always in the vanguard whilst the former was held up at the back and I think the result somewhat flatters her. Gertrude Versed looks a possible non stayer over a furlong further but I'll be keeping an eye on the place market on Betfair. She could drift to a big price in which case I'll step in.

Liber Nauticus £40w @ 43/10