Saturday's big race is huge for me this year with Sky Lantern's victory in the 1000 Guineas meaning I have a possible four figure payout riding on Ocovango. He has a cracking chance with Dawn Approach looking an obvious non stayer and the only way I see that horse winning is if he's a 133/4 type beast who gains victory despite the trip because of his class advantage - think Hawk Wing in 2002 if High Chaparral hasn't been around. The Irish 2000 Guineas put a dent in that theory with the third horse at Newmarket well beat and even money about Jim Bolger's animal is just an insanely bad price.
The inherent value I have in Ocovango (I stand to win around £2.4k for a total stake of £55 if he wins) means I am eager to throw more money at the race, especially with the place element of that bet looking good also. I took 25/1 about Magician after his Dee Stakes romp for just a fiver and have topped up upon his being left in the race and because of this the perceived wisdom is it compromises Battle of Marengo's chance. The theory being that if that horse was a Derby animal they wouldn't have left Magician in. Ballydoyle's past Derby strategies don't tally with that however. When the race has a strong contender from another yard they tend to go in mob handed. In 2009 they had the favourite in Fame and Glory that would have won an average renewal and yet they felt the need to run Rip Van Winkle. In no way was this a knock against their main runner. I see a similar scenario this year although Sea the Stars was 11/4 and Dawn Approach is a lot shorter. Ironically the former 2000 Guineas winner was a far more certain stayer. This is just a long winded way of saying that Battle of Marengo is now a backable price and I have taken 8 on the machine.
Ocovango £25w @ 12/1
Sky Lantern (1000G) (won) and Ocovango £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1
Magician £10w @ 16/1
Battle of Marengo £30w @ 7/1
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