I have to admit to a certain amount of annoyance this evening. The Oaks has always been a bad race for me and yet I still ended up piling into it despite not fancying anything that strongly. A combination of a week off coupled with a Group 1 race and I couldn't resist a wager. Silly.
But tomorrow is another day and I do have quite strong opinions about the Derby. Dawn Approach is a very short price for the race despite not being bred to stay a mile and a half. In my eyes the only way he wins the race is if his class advantage is sufficient to handle the dip in form the distance will inevitably result in. At the time the 2000 Guineas looked a good renewal and I thought he might be able to get away with even a half stone drop in his rating but the Irish Guineas changed that with the third at Newmarket outclassed and now unless the other horses in the race tomorrow are as bad as the ones Camelot faced last year I can't see him winning. He's certainly an horrific price.
I've been in a fantastic position in this year's race ever since Sky Lantern won the 1000 Guineas having put that horse and Ocovango in an each way double on the morning of the first fillies classic. In fact even if you add in the small amount of money I've lost on Magician to my total stake on the French horse I have approximately 37/1 on Fabre's colt. Couple that to the shortness of the favourite and I've felt for a while that I would play again on the race. Earlier in the week I added Battle of Marengo when he drifted due to the apparent likelihood of Magician running and this evening I have added Mars in an each way double with a horse I like for Royal Ascot.
Ocovango will need to step up on his three runs/wins thus far in his career and at this stage he doesn't look as good as Pour Moi who won the same contests in the early part of his 3yo career more impressively but he's a different kind of animal being more a galloper than a turn of foot merchant. Bavodino, the horse in behind Ocovango in the Prix Greffulhe, goes to Chantilly on Sunday with decent claims in the Prix du Jockey-Club and I have in fact taken fancy prices about him for the Arc. I think it's decent enough form and with Monsun as his sire I expect a good deal of improvement on the step up to a mile and a half. Would I back him at 8/1 if I was going to this race without an ante-post bet? I'm not sure to be honest and as the race stands right now Battle of Marengo and Mars offer the best value. The former has done nothing wrong, has won all the right trials for Ballydoyle and I expect considerable improvement when he faces a bigger field and a stronger pace. I wasn't interested at 9/2 this time last week but he has drifted quite a bit on Betfair during the build up and I've traded a few times on him and have ended up with a nice bet at over 7/1. Mars ran well enough in the Guineas and will appreciate the step up in trip. At 14/1 I think he has strong place claims and I do prefer him to the German horse, Ruler of the World and Libertarian, who are all shorter.
Derby:
Ocovango £25w @ 12/1(lost)
Sky Lantern (1000 Guineas)(won) and Ocovango £15ew double @ 9/1 and 12/1
Battle of Marengo £40w @ 76/10 (lost)
Magician (NR) £10
Mars (lost) and Reckless Abandon (King's Stand) £10ew double @ 14/1 and 10/1
(-127)
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