Newbury - 18th May

Tomorrow's big race at Newbury is a fascinating betting heat with the Ballydoyle colt Declaration of War a short priced favourite despite having form a few pounds below at least a couple of his rivals. He's very much a hype horse to my eyes and I've been gagging to take him on for this ever since the prices came out. I was a bit too keen really as Farhh has drifted to 5/1 after I initially took 4s and 9/2. I have topped up at that price though. He has a run of seconds to his name but did come into contact with Frankel a couple of times last year so there is nothing wrong with that. It's arguable what his best trip is as he ran very well in the Eclipse before losing out to the stronger staying Nathaniel who franked the form afterwards of course but his narrow defeat by Moonlight Cloud in the Prix du Moulin was a high class effort and gets my vote as his best run. He is simply overpriced for this event. I think his odds are in part a reflection of his stable not being in great form and that is a worry if I'm honest and is the main reason I've backed Cityscape as well.  That horse at his best is almost as good as my main selection and some of his runs last year, at Meydan in March and in America where he wasn't that far behind the top class Wise Dan (giving weight) were efforts that would win an ordinary renewal of this Group 1 contest. I've taken some 9/2 about him in a double and 4/1 with Paddy Power who return my stake if he's second to the favourite. That does seem a bit of a limp bet but I do worry with Farhh that he'll either win this or finish nowhere. It's just the way Godolphin roll. Of the others I do respect Beauty Parlour but this is a tough ask first time out against battle hardened colts.

Lockinge:
Farhh £70w @ 42/10 (won)
Cityscape and Ocovango (Derby) £20 double @ 9/2 and 8/1 (lost)
Cityscape £20w @ 4/1 (MBS) (lost)

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