Epsom - 1st June

I was enormously impressed with Vow's turn of foot when she won the fillies trial at Lingfield a few weeks back and took 10/1 about her for the Oaks that evening. She ran green when veering left but I feel that was immaturity rather than any inherent quirkiness that might effect her chances at Epsom tomorrow and I topped up at 6/1 a couple of days ago. Maybe isn't the market leader for the race anymore but at around 7/2 she's still rank bad value and her cramped odds make the race from a punting point of view. She travelled like a miler in the 1000 Guineas and I can't see her being suited to this mile and a half. The Fugue is the current favourite and I respect her chances enough to cover. She's bred to stay this trip and has enough of a chance to worry me. Of the others the Godolphin filly Kailani should go well but even though she has won this year already I vowed after the horror show of the Guineas that I wouldn't touch one of the stables for a big race unless he or she had the form categorically to go close. This is not the case here. The vibes are bad for Kissed from Ballydoyle who probably won't get her ground and the others all look much of a muchness. In summary I really like Vow, think her trainer is still underrated when it comes to Group races, and feel she's nailed on to at least place.

Vow £20ew @ 10/1 and £30w @ 6/1 (lost)
The Fugue £30dbl with Camelot (Derby) @ 3/1 and 4/6 (lost)


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Irish 1000 Guineas

Homecoming Queen looks a tough nut to crack in today's Irish 1000 Guineas but conditions are radically different in this race to what she faced at Newmarket and whilst she's the likeliest winner I like La Collina at 9/2. This filly has won at the track and will surely come on for her run at headquarters three weeks ago where she was outpaced and lost her position when the winner went on but kept on well to finish fifth. She's a filly who should stay 10f and I just think first time out she didn't have that speed that one or two others had when the pace hotted up. Interestingly at the time her jockey started rowing away as she lost her position Maybe's pilot was still motionless - an indication that whereas La Collina will be better over further Maybe has the look of a miler. She's a poor value favourite for the Oaks next Friday and I'm looking forward to taking her on in that race. Anyway, the Curragh's stiff mile round a turn will suit La Collina more than Newmarket's long straight and she's a sporting each way bet for all that Homecoming Queen holds her on form. I'll be surprised if she's out of the places.

La Collina £25ew @ 9/2 (lost)


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Irish 2000 Guineas

Nothing new to add to my post earlier in the week re Parish Hall and his claims at the Curragh tomorrow in the Irish 2000 Guineas. My main hope for the horse is he turns into a really live Derby contender but I think he can win this en route.

Parish Hall £28ew @ 6/1 (NR)


EDIT 26th May 2.30PM.
I've just returned home from work only to find that unfortunately Jim Bolger has announced that Parish Hall has a leg infection and misses both today's race and the Derby next week. Very disappointing news.
I posted earlier in the week that I respected Trumpet Major and I did feel he was the main danger to Parish Hall. He ran a decent enough race in the 2000 Guineas on ground that was probably softer than he likes. His time when winning the Craven stakes was actually five seconds faster than that recorded by Camelot at Newmarket. This suggests the ground was quicker in the Trial than it was in the Classic and I think the fast ground he'll encounter today will really suit him. Hannon's horse is a pace setter and he is a decent back to lay proposition in a race where the favourite, Power, has to be taken on given his dire run in the 2000.

Trumpet Major £60w @ 9/2
IR Lay placed @ 3/1 for £20 (lost)


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Classic Thoughts

Parish Hall preps for the Derby at the Curragh on Saturday in the Irish 2000 Guineas and is priced at longer odds than I expected. He'll be at his best over further than a mile this year but the Curragh is a stiff track and at 6/1 he's a sporting each way bet. I can't see him out of the first three but he might be tapped for toe by one or two of his more speedier bred rivals.

Of his rivals I fear Trumpet Major the most. He ran well in the Guineas but I felt he may have been up a pace setter in a race where they went a tad fast. Hermival was given a very nice toe on the far side by my selection Abtaal at Newmarket and I think he was flattered by his placing. Takar is your usual under priced John Oxx creature taking a big step up in class and Power was pretty much last in the 2000 Guineas but is being priced up as if that never happened. In short the last three named are poor odds and they give me an angle on the race as I do believe Parish Hall should pretty much be favourite.

My bets for Epsom have not changed since my last entry.

Irish 2000 Guineas:
Parish Hall £28ew @ 6/1

Oaks:
Vow £20ew @ 10/1

Derby:
Parish Hall £10w @ 215/10
Camelot £30w @ 5/2

Newbury - 19th May

Like all racing fans I am excited about Frankel today and hope he wins but in the back of my mind I think he could be vulnerable. This is his first run of the year and he has had an interrupted spring. Excelebration is a top class miler who has had an outing already and if the great one is below his best he could take advantage. I don't think it will happen but if it does at least I could get some sort of financial compensation. It's not the sort of scenario I will throw a lot of money at though because ultimately I hope it doesn't happen so a tenner double seems a good option.

£10w double Excelebration (Lockinge) and Vow (Oaks) @ 3/1 and 5/1 (lost)


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York - 17th May

The Dante Stakes tomorrow on the Knavesmire is the best looking classic trial we've had this year and I think 2000 Guineas also ran Fencing is overpriced for the race at 6/1. He ran well at Newmarket but it was his first race of the season and his pedigree suggests his run there was more of a sighter for targets over further than any real expectation of winning the race. He's bred to be at his over the Dante trip of 10f being by Street Cry out of a mare that won the Prix de Diane and he is trained by John Gosden who has had an excellent start to the season. Bonfire heads the market and is respected but I feel his eye catching  run behind French Fifteen in France last Autumn has been overrated - as runs by horses who get find trouble in running and then fly at the finish so often are. 9/4 is too short and the Godolphin horse who is second fav is readily opposed just on trainer grounds. The boys in blue are having a wretched time and Mandaean is as likely to finish tailed off and never heard of again than actually take a hand in the finish. It's happened before.

I'm having a wretched time myself on the punting front at the moment but I never give in and always stay disciplined. I've dropped my stakes a tad but I'll keep betting and my fortunes will turnaround.

Dante Stakes:

Fencing £50w @ 6/1 (lost)


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York - 16th May

A good meeting starts on Wednesday at York and a look at the Duke of York Stakes has uncovered a bet. The Hannon trained Libranno is a bit of an inconsistent beast but he has bits of form that gives him a good chance in this race yet he is trading at around 20/1 on Betfair. He had a lot of runs last year - some good,  some bad - but his best outing was towards the end of the campaign when he was third, carrying a three pound penalty, in the big sprint at Ascot on Champions Day. Behind him that day was a horse called Royal Rock, who ran a nice race when beaten around two lengths giving five pounds to The Cheka and Mayson at Doncaster in March. Those two animals take on Libranno tomorrow yet are a lot shorter in the market despite that line of form. A line that gives Libranno the beating of them. He seems to run poorly when either the ground is too soft or his stamina is stretched. I think 6f on good to soft ground that is drying out slowly is fine but big prices in Group race sprints are not the sort of bets that make me my money so I really am weighting this bet in the place market where I have around 4/1 after commission.

Duke of York Stakes:

Libranno £20w @ 20/1 and £30pl @ 43/10 (lost)


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Epsom Thoughts

 Last Saturday I was quietly confident of a result in the first Classic of the season but did fear Camelot in a big way. I chose the path of having  a small bet on him for the Derby rather than covering my stake in the   Guineas and time will tell if this will pay off. I still like Parish Hall for the race but am worried about him being in neither the Derrinstown or the Dante next week. I wonder if Mr Bolger is prepared to take the horse to Epsom without any sort of prep?

Onto the Oaks. I was really impressed with Vow today in the trial on the Polytrack at Lingfield. She ran green entering the straight and wandered off a true line as well which is a worry for Epsom but she showed a smart turn of foot and although I missed out on the 14/1 she was available at immediately after the race I decided 10/1 was worth a little tickle. She'd have learnt heaps from her run today and hopefully running on the turf at Epsom will help her keep balanced. Today would have been her first experience of running at speed on anything other than grass and it may have contributed to her waywardness. I fear 1000 Guineas third Maybe in this race and for that reason, as well as the possibility my selection may take time to get going in the straight at Epsom if there's a hint of today's shenanigans, she is an each way punt.

Oaks:

Vow £20ew @ 10/1

Derby:

Parish Hall £10w @ 215/10

Camelot £30w @ 5/2

Chester - 10th May

Today was one of the hardest days I've had to endure for a while on the horses. I knew that the ground wasn't much of an issue with Overturn and the weight he was carrying didn't bother me either. I always favour top weights at tight, turning courses like Chester and I was so confident of a huge run from the horse. But he kept drifting and so I kept backing him at 11 and 12 and 13 on Betfair - always knowing my angle was correct, that he would lead and he would trade a lot shorter in running. I had lays in place from 6/4 to 5/1 and they were all matched. It was heartbreaking seeing him caught in the short straight.

Anyway, I have to console myself with the fact that I am punting well at the moment. I'm getting the prices and the horses I'm backing are running well. But I have had five seconds since my last winner, three of them at double figure prices.

The theme that seemed to run throughout last year's flat season for me was the steady stream of shortish priced winners I had. I just kept ticking over all year, no really big winners (until Cirrus Des Aigles at Ascot) and no big reverses (Sarafina in the Arc apart) or losing streaks. That sort of betting year is a grind though and I would like some bigger winners this year for a bit of comfort. But, when they come along the good priced shorties have to be taken and tomorrow in the Huxley Stakes we have Questioning rather nicely priced at a little over 3/1 on the Exchanges. This John Gosden trained beast has had a cracking start to the year, beating Twice Over at Headquarters and going close at Sandown last time out on heavy ground. Underfoot conditions are the key to why I think this horse is a bet tomorrow. The recent rain has really got into the ground at Chester and more is forecast before racing tomorrow. Questioning obviously handles deep ground, is in form, his trainer is in form and he should be favourite for this contest. He has a 3lb penalty but that doesn't overly concern me and truth to tell it doesn't looks a particulary competitive event. The trip might be a slight concern but again, Chester is the sort of track where they are always on the turn and this helps conserve staying power. Wigmore Hall is a nice horse but isn't proven on the soft and the Godolphin animal is an easily opposed favourite given that outfits uninspiring start to the campaign.

Huxley Stakes:
Questioning £60w @ 31/10 (lost)


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Chester - 9th May

I was really looking forward to the Chester Cup tomorrow in anticipation on having a nice punt on Overturn at around 11/2. He carries top weight but Chester is the sort of course that favours those at the head of the handicap as it's such a tight, turning track. However the course was hit by 21mm of rain on Monday evening and I think his participation is now in doubt. That's a shame but my bet is in place and if he's pulled out my stake will be returned. He's an enthusiastic front runner who is bound to trade much shorter in running than his SP and so I have IR lays in place.
I think there are one or two at the top of the market who look a bit dodgy and with this race having very good each terms and being very much a contest where a high draw is a huge disadvantage I've backed Tominator as well. This horse hasn't really had the stamina test he clearly relishes since winning the Northumberland Plate last year on good to soft and so with underfoot conditions the way they are and the likely fast pace it looks a race that will really suit him. At around 10s he's a decent each way bet.

Chester Cup:
Overturn £120w @ 6/1 and £20ew @ 11/2
IR lays placed @ 5/2 for £40 and 3/1 for £20 (2nd)

Tominator £25ew @ 10/1 (lost)


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