07/06/2015

Ante-Post

    I really enjoyed yesterday's action. It was an historic day of course with American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown and it was fantastic to watch history being made. Hopefully connections will give him a nice break and have him back for the Breeders Cup. Over here I was impressed with both Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs in our Derby and both will be tough to beat given the right conditions. I like the latter for the Arc as I felt the track and ground were against him yesterday. I was gobsmacked when Dolniya was turned over, but that race and the market encapsulates how my season is going. I'm beating the book on a regular basis but not getting paid. Quite frustrating. That said I always try and take positives wherever I can and was pleased with the run of Oasis Fantasy in the 12f handicap later on at Epsom. I put this horse in my tracker after his taking run over 14f at Goodwood a few weeks ago but didn't back him yesterday because of the drop down in trip. He had a poor draw and met lots of trouble in running before coming home like a train. He's in the Northumberland Plate and although that is a tough ask from a stamina viewpoint he'll be a nice price.

    Royal Ascot starts in just over a week and although I rarely get too involved ante-post wise I have recently placed a couple of wagers. The sprinting division looks extremely hot this season and I have backed Muthmir in the King's Stand and Limato in the Commonwealth Cup. The former ran well enough in the Duke of York last month but was very much ridden to get a run into him, front running tactics not the sort of approach connections would take in a race he was tuned up for. He won next time out in France despite the ground not being as fast as he likes and if underfoot conditions are to his liking at Ascot I think he'll go close. A stiff 5f is ideal for him and although the opposition will be strong I think there are sound enough reasons to be against the horses ahead of him in the market. Sole Power has been a top class sprinter but I kind of feel at eight years of age his best years might be behind him. That might be a bit tenuous but it's a gut feeling I have. Brazen Beau is a crack Aussie sprinter with a fair amount of hype behind him but his form is mainly over 6f and I wonder if he'll be fast enough for this. It's true an easy 6f on a flat Aussie track might not be much more of a stamina test than Ascot's uphill 5f but I think that the trip is enough of a doubt to be against him. That climb to the line will really suit Muthmir.

    Limato looks a really exciting prospect over 6f and he was unbeaten until his defeat at Haydock a week or so ago but his trainer said he needs the ground like a road and it plainly wasn't firm enough at my local track. His odds for the newly introduced Commonwealth Cup increased from (I think) 7/4 to 7/2 after that reverse and that looks an over-reaction to me. He'll take the world of beating on the likely ground.

EDIT 8th June:

    I've added a couple of selections to my ante-post list for next week. I've had 7.6 matched on the machine about Night of Thunder for the Queen Anne on Tuesday and also backed The Grey Gatsby for the Prince of Wales's the following day. I'll write more about these wagers and the races they appear in on the day.

Queen Anne Stakes:
Night of Thunder £20w @ 66/10

Prince of Wales's Stakes:
The Grey Gatsby £15w @ 8/1

King's Stand Stakes:
Muthmir £15w @ 8/1

Commonwealth Cup:
Limato £15w @ 37/10






 

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